Florida v West Virginia
Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ET at Imperial Arena. Florida our rank 57 · 3-1; West Virginia AP 24, our rank 30 · 3-0.
Who will win Florida vs West Virginia?
The model gives West Virginia a 72% chance to beat Florida, with a projected score of West Virginia 74, Florida 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | |||||
| ForbesF · 33 min | 17.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 20+ 38% | |
| CookeG · 34 min | 16.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 15+ 60% | |
| WaltonG · 28 min | 12.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| NgoduC · 23 min | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 10+ 34% | |
| Florida | |||||
| McMillerG · 36 min | 20.9 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 20+ 54% | |
| IwuchukwuF · 28 min | 11.1 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| HarrisG · 31 min | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 10+ 56% | |
| WeathersbyF · 24 min | 8.7 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Gia Cooke: Florida 43%West Virginia 57%
The white mark is the call with her: West Virginia 72%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | West Virginia without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | ||||
| Gia Cooke | 5.2 | 57% | −15 | 69–71 |
| Zahirah Walton | 4.8 | 58% | −14 | 69–72 |
| Skylar Forbes | 4.7 | 58% | −14 | 69–72 |
| Khyala Ngodu | 3.2 | 63% | −9 | 68–72 |
| Florida | ||||
| Kiyomi McMiller | 4.4 | 83% | +11 | 65–76 |
| Vanessa Harris | 3.0 | 80% | +8 | 65–76 |
| Vivian Iwuchukwu | 3.0 | 80% | +8 | 65–76 |
| Jade Weathersby | 2.7 | 79% | +7 | 66–75 |
Change is in West Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Florida, then West Virginia. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Florida 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-72vs South Florida
- Nov 8W 64-58at Chattanooga
- Nov 5W 95-65vs UCF
- Nov 2W 83-60vs Bucknell
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 78.0 and allowing 63.8
West Virginia 3-0WWW
- Nov 8W 81-63at Georgia Tech
- Nov 5W 78-66vs G WashingtonDidn't cover −20.5 · Over 130.5
- Nov 3W 68-64vs Rhode Island
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.7 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Florida | West Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.1 42nd | 105.4 39th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.1 78th | 80.6 23rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 64th | 47.0% 94th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 162nd | 47.3% 287th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 48th | 23.7% 199th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 225th | 36.5% 43rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 203rd | 0.22 133rd |
The widest gap: West Virginia's offense (39th) against Florida's defense (78th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Florida 31, West Virginia 35
- First-half margin
- West Virginia by 4.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Projected second half
- Florida 36, West Virginia 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Florida, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.8 scored, 28.0 allowed
- West Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 30.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiyomi McMillerG | 36 | 20.9 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 54% · 4+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Moriah MurrayG | 33 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Vanessa HarrisG | 31 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Vivian IwuchukwuF | 28 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Jordan JonesG | 24 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jade WeathersbyF | 24 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Aurora AlmonF | 14 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
West Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gia CookeG | 34 | 16.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Skylar ForbesF | 33 | 17.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Zahirah WaltonG | 28 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Khyala NgoduC | 23 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Kennedy HarrisG | 22 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Marya HudginsG | 17 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Divine TumbaF | 15 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
| Nylah WilsonG | 14 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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