Who won Lafayette vs St John's?
Final: St. John's 95, Lafayette 37. Before tip-off the model gave St. John's a 93% chance to win, with a projected margin of 20.1 points for St. John's. Ny'Ceara Pryor scored 19 for St John's; Johari Hall had 6 for Lafayette.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Ny'Ceara Pryor: Lafayette 13%St John's 87%
The white mark is the call with her: St John's 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | St John's without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 St John's | ||||
| Ny'Ceara Pryor | 4.7 | 87% | −6 | 69–85 |
| Brooke Moore | 3.0 | 89% | −4 | 68–85 |
| Sa'Mya Wyatt | 2.8 | 89% | −4 | 68–86 |
| Daniela Abies | 2.5 | 90% | −3 | 68–86 |
Change is in St John's's win chance, in points. Scores read Lafayette, then St John's. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Lafayette
No games yet this season: this is its first.
St John's
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lafayette | St John's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.3 230th | 102.4 55th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.6 268th | 83.4 50th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.0% 207th | 46.8% 105th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.6% 247th | 44.3% 108th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.4% 301st | 21.7% 49th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 239th | 36.9% 32nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 13th | 0.24 50th |
The widest gap: St John's's offense (55th) against Lafayette's defense (268th), of 363 teams.
First half
St John's led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 10.5 points and the total by 15.0.
- At halftime
- Lafayette 18, St John's 40
- Projected halftime score
- Lafayette 31, St John's 42
- First-half margin
- St John's by 11.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Lafayette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haylie AdamskiG | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carley VoceG | 29 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tasha ChudyF | 28 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Haley PoserG | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Johari HallF | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Emma HeaneyG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Maddison KrugF | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Sofia ValenteF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sophia BrooksF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
St John's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke MooreG | 26 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Sa'Mya WyattF | 24 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Janeya GrantG | 23 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Ny'Ceara PryorG | 23 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Daniela AbiesF | 18 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Sanaa TrippG | 17 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Yohana FamiF | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Olivia TuckerG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Serenity LancasterF | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 |