Who will win Lafayette vs Marist?
The model gives Marist a 57% chance to beat Lafayette, with a projected score of Marist 65, Lafayette 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marist | |||||
| HenryG · 35 min | 17.8 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 20+ 38% | |
| BretonesG · 29 min | 8.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 10+ 35% | |
| OldakerG · 22 min | 6.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 5+ 65% | |
| OhmG · 29 min | 6.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 5+ 59% | |
 Lafayette | |||||
| AdamskiG · 35 min | 11.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 61% | |
| PickeringG · 35 min | 10.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| HallF · 21 min | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| ChudyF · 30 min | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Justine Henry: Lafayette 45%Marist 55%
The white mark is the call with her: Marist 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Marist without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist | ||||
| Justine Henry | 0.8 | 55% | −2 | 63–65 |
Change is in Marist's win chance, in points. Scores read Lafayette, then Marist. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lafayette 1-2LWL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.7 and allowing 64.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lafayette | Marist | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.3 230th | 85.5 257th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.6 268th | 98.6 267th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.0% 207th | 47.0% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.6% 247th | 46.0% 212th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.4% 301st | 23.1% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 239th | 28.0% 358th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 13th | 0.21 182nd |
The widest gap: Lafayette's offense (230th) against Marist's defense (267th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lafayette 30, Marist 31
- First-half margin
- Marist by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.5
- Projected second half
- Lafayette 33, Marist 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lafayette, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 28.3 allowed
- Marist, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 28.8 scored, 31.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lafayette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haylie AdamskiG | 35 | 11.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Neyia PickeringG | 35 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Haley PoserG | 30 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Tasha ChudyF | 30 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Johari HallF | 21 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Emma HeaneyG | 20 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Carley VoceG | 17 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Maddison KrugF | 12 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Marist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justine HenryG | 35 | 17.8 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 10+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Madison OhmG | 29 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Kasey BretonesG | 29 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Karly FischerF | 24 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Ryan OldakerG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Julia CorsentinoG | 16 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Chloe EscanillasG | 16 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Catie KlemmG | 13 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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