Who will win Marist vs Monmouth?
The model gives Monmouth a 92% chance to beat Marist, with a projected score of Monmouth 70, Marist 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Monmouth | |||||
| GambleG · 34 min | 23.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 25+ 42% | |
| DibulaF · 30 min | 18.2 | 8.5 | 1.3 | 20+ 39% | |
| McManusG · 26 min | 11.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 58% | |
| KersaintG · 31 min | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 5+ 60% | |
 Marist | |||||
| HenryG · 33 min | 14.3 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 15+ 45% | |
| BretonesG · 27 min | 6.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5+ 63% | |
| OldakerG · 22 min | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 5+ 55% | |
| OhmG · 28 min | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 5+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Divine Dibula: Marist 14%Monmouth 86%
The white mark is the call with her: Monmouth 92%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Monmouth without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth | ||||
| Divine Dibula | 3.5 | 86% | −6 | 55–69 |
| Gigi Gamble | 2.3 | 88% | −4 | 55–69 |
| Kathy Kersaint | 1.4 | 90% | −2 | 54–70 |
| Madalena Amaro | 0.9 | 90% | −2 | 54–70 |
| Marist | ||||
| Justine Henry | 0.8 | 93% | +1 | 53–71 |
Change is in Monmouth's win chance, in points. Scores read Marist, then Monmouth. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Marist 0-4LLLL
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 60.0 and allowing 66.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marist | Monmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 85.5 257th | 90.9 166th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.6 267th | 87.2 68th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 296th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 97th | 45.5% 178th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.0% 212th | 43.0% 42nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 146th | 24.6% 264th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.0% 358th | 32.2% 211th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 182nd | 0.22 99th |
The widest gap: Monmouth's defense (68th) against Marist's offense (257th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marist 25, Monmouth 34
- First-half margin
- Monmouth by 9.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.8
- Projected second half
- Marist 29, Monmouth 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marist, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 28.8 scored, 31.5 allowed
- Monmouth, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justine HenryG | 33 | 14.3 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 8+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Madison OhmG | 28 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Kasey BretonesG | 27 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Karly FischerF | 23 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Ryan OldakerG | 22 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Julia CorsentinoG | 16 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Chloe EscanillasG | 16 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 26% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Catie KlemmG | 14 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Monmouth
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madalena AmaroG | 35 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 48% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| Gigi GambleG | 34 | 23.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| 25+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 54% · 3+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kathy KersaintG | 31 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Divine DibulaF | 30 | 18.2 | 8.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 9+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Vanessa McManusG | 26 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kailah CorreaG | 16 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Kellyn PreiraG | 11 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 2+ reb 28% · 2+ ast 17% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…