Who will win UAlbany vs Rutgers?
The model gives Rutgers a 86% chance to beat UAlbany, with a projected score of Rutgers 71, UAlbany 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rutgers | |||||
| PauldoG · 32 min | 18.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 20+ 40% | |
| PerkinsG · 30 min | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 15+ 35% | |
| LampleyG · 29 min | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| DayeG · 28 min | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 45% | |
 UAlbany | |||||
| BujoldG · 30 min | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| RomanF · 25 min | 9.2 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 42% | |
| ShishkinaG · 26 min | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 38% | |
| LangermannG · 31 min | 7.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mia Pauldo: UAlbany 20%Rutgers 80%
The white mark is the call with her: Rutgers 86%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Rutgers without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | ||||
| Mia Pauldo | 3.0 | 80% | −6 | 59–69 |
| Tara Daye | 2.1 | 82% | −4 | 59–70 |
| Jaylah Lampley | 1.9 | 83% | −3 | 58–70 |
| Mya Pauldo | 1.4 | 84% | −2 | 58–70 |
| UAlbany | ||||
| Madison Roman | 1.8 | 89% | +3 | 57–72 |
Change is in Rutgers's win chance, in points. Scores read UAlbany, then Rutgers. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UAlbany 3-1WWWL
- Nov 11L 41-95at Ole MissDidn't cover +30.5 · Over 128.5
- Nov 8W 77-57at Mount St Marys
- Nov 5W 62-61vs Manhattan
- Nov 2W 65-61at Northeastern
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 61.2 and allowing 68.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Rutgers 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 64-62vs Monmouth
- Nov 8W 107-76vs Indiana St
- Nov 4W 75-62vs La Salle
- Nov 2W 83-52vs Long Island
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 82.2 and allowing 63.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UAlbany | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 85.1 260th | 97.2 97th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.7 145th | 92.4 138th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 327th | 72.2 156th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.8% 153rd | 44.5% 243rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.5% 65th | 47.9% 311th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.0% 322nd | 21.0% 18th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 213th | 33.6% 143rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 149th | 0.22 142nd |
The widest gap: Rutgers's defense (138th) against UAlbany's offense (260th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UAlbany 27, Rutgers 34
- First-half margin
- Rutgers by 7.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.8
- Projected second half
- UAlbany 31, Rutgers 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UAlbany, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 28.5 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Rutgers, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 37.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UAlbany
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lara LangermannG | 31 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Alexia BujoldG | 30 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Shyla MontgomeryG | 26 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Daria ShishkinaG | 26 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Madison RomanF | 25 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 8+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Cadence JohnsonF | 17 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Noa López TallónG | 16 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Emma ZucconF | 16 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
Rutgers
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia PauldoG | 32 | 18.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Zachara PerkinsG | 30 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jaylah LampleyG | 29 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Tara DayeG | 28 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Mya PauldoG | 21 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Zennia ThomasF | 20 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Imani LesterF | 17 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Chikae DesdunesG | 15 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Missed the last game: Chikae Desdunes (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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