Yale at Quinnipiac
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Arena. Yale our rank 190 · 3-0; Quinnipiac our rank 211 · 1-3.
Who will win Yale vs Quinnipiac?
The model gives Quinnipiac a 63% chance to beat Yale, with a projected score of Quinnipiac 68, Yale 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | |||||
| ThomasC · 27 min | 15.7 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 15+ 53% | |
| SnyderG · 30 min | 10.0 | 10.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 49% | |
| BenoitG · 25 min | 8.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 40% | |
| ThomasG · 21 min | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 5+ 64% | |
| Yale | |||||
| MooreG · 23 min | 14.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 15+ 48% | |
| VukicG · 20 min | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| VydrovaF · 28 min | 9.1 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 10+ 41% | |
| ChapmanG · 25 min | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Maria Kealy: Yale 38%Quinnipiac 62%
The white mark is the call with her: Quinnipiac 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Quinnipiac without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | ||||
| Maria Kealy | 0.5 | 62% | −1 | 64–68 |
| Yale | ||||
| Luisa Vydrova | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 64–69 |
| Cloe Vecina | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 64–69 |
| Ciniya Moore | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 64–69 |
Change is in Quinnipiac's win chance, in points. Scores read Yale, then Quinnipiac. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Yale 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 96.0 and allowing 43.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Yale | Quinnipiac | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.9 219th | 91.4 158th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.7 167th | 100.1 303rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 148th | 70.2 331st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.3% 126th | 45.5% 176th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 137th | 48.0% 315th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.9% 212th | 23.4% 175th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 162nd | 32.3% 205th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 141st | 0.23 66th |
The widest gap: Yale's offense (219th) against Quinnipiac's defense (303rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Yale 30, Quinnipiac 33
- First-half margin
- Quinnipiac by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.7
- Projected second half
- Yale 34, Quinnipiac 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Yale, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 14.3 allowed
- Quinnipiac, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 33.2 scored, 33.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Yale
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luisa VydrovaF | 28 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Cloe VecinaG | 27 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Marisa ChapmanG | 25 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ciniya MooreG | 23 | 14.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ke'iara OdumeG | 21 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Lea VukicG | 20 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Dora KastlF | 19 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 5+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Helena KeaneG | 15 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Missed the last game: Hannah Wasserman (16 min a game), Sophia Gibson (15 min a game) and Kasey Davey (18 min a game).
Quinnipiac
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elle SnyderG | 30 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 10+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Lilly ThomasC | 27 | 15.7 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Kayla HopsonG | 26 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Alanna BenoitG | 25 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Payton DulinG | 23 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Ava ThomasG | 21 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Maria KealyG | 17 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Uliana DoroninaF | 13 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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