Who will win Rider vs Yale?
The model gives Yale a 83% chance to beat Rider, with a projected score of Yale 66, Rider 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yale | |||||
| MooreG · 23 min | 15.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 15+ 51% | |
| VukicG · 20 min | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| VydrovaF · 28 min | 9.2 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 10+ 43% | |
| ChapmanG · 24 min | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 10+ 42% | |
 Rider | |||||
| HoddinottG · 34 min | 11.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 10+ 56% | |
| McIverG · 34 min | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 10+ 35% | |
| SweeneyF · 33 min | 6.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 5+ 58% | |
| Perez MesquidaG · 27 min | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Luisa Vydrova: Rider 19%Yale 81%
The white mark is the call with her: Yale 83%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Yale without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | ||||
| Luisa Vydrova | 0.6 | 81% | −2 | 54–66 |
| Cloe Vecina | 0.6 | 81% | −2 | 54–66 |
| Ciniya Moore | 0.6 | 82% | −1 | 54–66 |
Change is in Yale's win chance, in points. Scores read Rider, then Yale. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Rider 1-1LW
- Nov 12W 56-45at C Connecticut
- Nov 2L 45-50at NJIT
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 50.5 and allowing 47.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rider | Yale | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 77.0 341st | 87.9 219th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.7 232nd | 93.7 167th |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 334th | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.3% 304th | 46.3% 126th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.5% 26th | 44.7% 137th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 80th | 23.9% 212th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 155th | 33.1% 162nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 94th | 0.22 141st |
The widest gap: Yale's defense (167th) against Rider's offense (341st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Rider 25, Yale 32
- First-half margin
- Yale by 7.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 56.6
- Projected second half
- Rider 29, Yale 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 62.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Rider, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 25.5 scored, 23.0 allowed
- Yale, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 14.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Rider
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliya McIverG | 34 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Giana HoddinottG | 34 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Gabby SweeneyF | 33 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 7+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Aina Perez MesquidaG | 27 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Julia KarpellG | 25 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Ainsley GibsonG | 20 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Alena CofieldG | 19 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Yale
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luisa VydrovaF | 28 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Cloe VecinaG | 27 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Marisa ChapmanG | 24 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ciniya MooreG | 23 | 15.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ke'iara OdumeG | 21 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Lea VukicG | 20 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Dora KastlF | 19 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 6+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Helena KeaneG | 16 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Hannah Wasserman (16 min a game), Sophia Gibson (15 min a game) and Kasey Davey (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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