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Probable Stats / Women's / Tuesday, November 17

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Rider at FDU

Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Bogota Savings Bank Center. Rider our rank 322 · 1-1; FDU our rank 168 · 2-2.

Who will win Rider vs FDU?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Fairleigh Dickinson a 91% chance to beat Rider, with a projected score of FDU 68, Rider 52.

To winFDU 91%Rider 9%
Projected score52–68Rider, then FDU
Margin16.7FDU · no line posted
Total120.2no line posted
First half24–33FDU ahead 82%
Rider by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40FDU by 50Model: FDU by 16.7Rider by 10by 10by 30FDU by 50Model: FDU by 16.7

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
FDU
DowneyG · 30 min12.32.51.210+ 64%
CrosbyF · 30 min11.07.91.910+ 55%
Osei-OwusuF · 28 min8.67.32.010+ 38%
ValleG · 24 min7.94.61.310+ 33%
Rider
HoddinottG · 33 min10.62.81.910+ 52%
McIverG · 33 min7.95.22.210+ 32%
SweeneyF · 32 min5.96.92.45+ 55%
Perez MesquidaG · 27 min5.32.91.55+ 49%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Rebecca Osei-Owusu: Rider 12%FDU 88%

The white mark is the call with her: FDU 91%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsFDU without herChangeProjected score
FDU
Rebecca Osei-Owusu1.888%−353–68
Leah Crosby1.689%−253–68
Reese Downey0.690%−152–68

Change is in FDU's win chance, in points. Scores read Rider, then FDU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Rider 1-1LW

    1. Nov 12W 56-45at C Connecticut
    2. Nov 2L 45-50at NJIT
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 50.5 and allowing 47.5

    FDU 2-2LLWW

    1. Nov 12W 58-55vs Manhattan
    2. Nov 9W 82-46vs East Stroudsburg
    3. Nov 4L 65-85at Texas
    4. Nov 2L 66-87at Baylor
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 67.8 and allowing 68.2

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    RiderFDU
    Points scored per 100 possessions77.0 341st93.7 131st
    Points allowed per 10096.7 232nd96.2 223rd
    Possessions a game70.1 334th69.4 357th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)43.3% 304th46.8% 107th
    Opponents' shooting42.5% 26th46.3% 232nd
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.2% 80th22.0% 66th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.2% 155th32.8% 176th
    Free throws per shot0.22 94th0.19 318th

    The widest gap: FDU's defense (223rd) against Rider's offense (341st), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Rider 24, FDU 33
    First-half margin
    FDU by 9.6
    First-half points, both teams
    57.0
    Projected second half
    Rider 28, FDU 35
    Second-half points, both teams
    63.2
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Rider, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 25.5 scored, 23.0 allowed
    FDU, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 32.5 scored, 33.8 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Rider

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Aliya McIverG337.95.22.20.7
    10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 47%
    Giana HoddinottG3310.62.81.91.1
    10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 53%
    Gabby SweeneyF325.96.92.41.1
    5+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 43%
    Aina Perez MesquidaG275.32.91.50.3
    5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 41%
    Julia KarpellG253.91.20.61.0
    5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 57%
    Ainsley GibsonG203.52.10.80.4
    5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32%
    Alena CofieldG195.12.60.80.4
    5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 30%

    FDU

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Reese DowneyG3012.32.51.22.6
    10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ threes 44%
    Leah CrosbyF3011.07.91.90.6
    10+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 55%
    Rebecca Osei-OwusuF288.67.32.00.0
    10+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 55%
    Ane ValleG247.94.61.30.7
    10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 45%
    Theresa BiladiG237.53.01.30.7
    5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45%
    Ophir WeintraubG205.12.62.20.3
    5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 61%
    Iriona GravleyF166.12.90.40.1
    5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 51%
    Ally KaminskiG143.91.60.80.6
    5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 42%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Tue, Nov 17

    All games
    1. 5 PMprojected 64-68Army at UMass, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 70-69Temple at G Washington, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 58-62Seton Hall at Auburn, women's: game page
    4. 7:30 PMprojected 63-77Marquette at Wisconsin, women's: game page
    5. 9:30 PMprojected 63-66Rice at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 10:30 PMprojected 67-61Washington at Washington St, women's: game page
    Rider next: at Yale, Sat, Nov 14 · 17%FDU next: at Ohio State, Sun, Nov 15 · <1%Rider: schedule and oddsFDU: schedule and odds