Who will win NC A&T vs Navy?
The model gives Navy a 85% chance to beat North Carolina A&T, with a projected score of Navy 73, NC A&T 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | |||||
| Barnett-GayG · 31 min | 17.6 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 15+ 64% | |
| MesuchG · 30 min | 14.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 15+ 43% | |
| AlmeidaG · 26 min | 7.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 5+ 68% | |
| GibbonsG · 21 min | 7.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5+ 66% | |
 NC A&T | |||||
| LockeF · 29 min | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| KarriemF · 21 min | 7.3 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 5+ 67% | |
| AlexanderG · 25 min | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 5+ 66% | |
| HowardF · 24 min | 6.6 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zanai Barnett-Gay: NC A&T 22%Navy 78%
The white mark is the call with her: Navy 85%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Navy without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | ||||
| Zanai Barnett-Gay | 2.9 | 78% | −7 | 61–71 |
| Quinn Boettinger | 1.2 | 82% | −3 | 60–72 |
| Zoe Mesuch | 0.7 | 83% | −2 | 60–72 |
| Julianna Almeida | 0.6 | 83% | −2 | 60–72 |
| NC A&T | ||||
| Yves Cox | 0.8 | 86% | +1 | 59–73 |
Change is in Navy's win chance, in points. Scores read NC A&T, then Navy. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
NC A&T 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 50.0 and allowing 65.7
Navy 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 61-77at James Madison
- Nov 7L 77-97at Temple
- Nov 2W 91-63at Mount St Marys
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.3 and allowing 79.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NC A&T | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.4 288th | 94.1 126th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.7 211th | 96.8 234th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 312th | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.8% 320th | 48.5% 31st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.8% 258th | 46.4% 241st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 126th | 22.7% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 214th | 32.9% 172nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 307th | 0.21 195th |
The widest gap: Navy's offense (126th) against NC A&T's defense (211th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- NC A&T 28, Navy 35
- First-half margin
- Navy by 7.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.8
- Projected second half
- NC A&T 32, Navy 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- NC A&T, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 26.7 scored, 28.7 allowed
- Navy, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 38.3 scored, 39.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
NC A&T
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris LockeF | 29 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Maraja PassG | 27 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Jada BatesF | 26 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Drew AlexanderG | 25 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Darrionna HowardF | 24 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Anaya KarriemF | 21 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Yves CoxC | 20 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 48% | |||||
| Rania CurryG | 20 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
Navy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zanai Barnett-GayG | 31 | 17.6 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Zoe MesuchG | 30 | 14.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Julianna AlmeidaG | 26 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Mary GibbonsG | 21 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Lizzie HolderF | 20 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Quinn BoettingerF | 18 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Isa GrantF | 16 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Grace MinihaneG | 15 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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