Who will win Liberty vs NC A&T?
The model gives Liberty a 88% chance to beat North Carolina A&T, with a projected score of Liberty 69, NC A&T 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty | |||||
| StoutC · 25 min | 11.7 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| GregoryF · 26 min | 10.9 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| NwaobiF · 23 min | 9.1 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 41% | |
| ThompsonG · 22 min | 7.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 31% | |
 NC A&T | |||||
| LockeF · 29 min | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 41% | |
| KarriemF · 21 min | 6.8 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 5+ 63% | |
| AlexanderG · 24 min | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 62% | |
| HowardF · 24 min | 6.2 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sophia Gregory: Liberty 81%NC A&T 19%
The white mark is the call with her: Liberty 88%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Liberty without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | ||||
| Sophia Gregory | 3.3 | 81% | −7 | 67–56 |
| Emmy Stout | 2.8 | 83% | −5 | 67–55 |
| Ify Nwaobi | 2.4 | 83% | −5 | 67–55 |
| JaKayla Thompson | 1.4 | 85% | −3 | 68–55 |
| NC A&T | ||||
| Yves Cox | 0.8 | 89% | +1 | 69–54 |
Change is in Liberty's win chance, in points. Scores read Liberty, then NC A&T. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Liberty 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 47-71at NC State
- Nov 7W 82-49at East Carolina
- Nov 2W 73-30vs Frostburg State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 67.3 and allowing 50.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Liberty | NC A&T | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.7 85th | 82.4 288th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.1 79th | 95.7 211th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 347th | 70.6 312th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 88th | 42.8% 320th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 96th | 46.8% 258th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.7% 269th | 22.9% 126th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.0% 48th | 32.1% 214th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 95th | 0.19 307th |
The widest gap: Liberty's defense (79th) against NC A&T's offense (288th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Liberty 33, NC A&T 25
- First-half margin
- Liberty by 8.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.1
- Projected second half
- Liberty 35, NC A&T 29
- Second-half points, both teams
- 64.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Liberty, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 22.3 allowed
- NC A&T, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 26.7 scored, 28.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Liberty
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia GregoryF | 26 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Elisabeth AegisdottirF | 26 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Emmy StoutC | 25 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Ify NwaobiF | 23 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 9+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| JaKayla ThompsonG | 22 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Lynn PetersC | 16 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
| Claudia AcinG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Emma LeonG | 15 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
NC A&T
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris LockeF | 29 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Maraja PassG | 27 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jada BatesF | 26 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Drew AlexanderG | 24 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Darrionna HowardF | 24 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Anaya KarriemF | 21 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Yves CoxC | 20 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
| Rania CurryG | 20 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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