Who won Penn vs Drexel?
Final: Pennsylvania 71, Drexel 70. Before tip-off the model gave Pennsylvania a 75% chance to win, with a projected margin of 9.3 points for Pennsylvania. Tina Njike scored 19 for Penn; Laine McGurk had 21 for Drexel.
Prediction logged before tip-off; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Katie Collins: Penn 69%Drexel 31%
The white mark is the call with her: Penn 75%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Penn without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penn | ||||
| Katie Collins | 2.5 | 69% | −6 | 67–60 |
| Tina Njike | 2.5 | 69% | −6 | 67–60 |
| Mataya Gayle | 1.9 | 70% | −5 | 67–60 |
| Brooke Suttle | 1.5 | 71% | −4 | 67–60 |
 Drexel | ||||
| Laine McGurk | 1.9 | 79% | +4 | 69–58 |
| Molly Rullo | 0.9 | 77% | +2 | 69–58 |
| Julia Garcia Roig | 0.7 | 76% | +1 | 68–58 |
Change is in Penn's win chance, in points. Scores read Penn, then Drexel. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Penn | Drexel | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 61st | 93.7 132nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.8 169th | 98.2 258th |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 352nd | 68.3 362nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.3% 40th | 44.6% 233rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.9% 209th | 47.8% 304th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.5% 35th | 21.6% 38th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.7% 91st | 30.9% 285th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 352nd | 0.19 313th |
The widest gap: Penn's offense (61st) against Drexel's defense (258th), of 363 teams.
First half
Drexel led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 10.3 points and the total by 2.8.
- At halftime
- Penn 29, Drexel 34
- Projected halftime score
- Penn 33, Drexel 27
- First-half margin
- Penn by 5.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Penn, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 54.0 scored, 13.0 allowed
- Drexel, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 33.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Penn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel ThatcherG | 39 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| Mataya GayleG | 38 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Katie CollinsF | 37 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Tina NjikeC | 29 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Brooke SuttleG | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Gabriella KelleyF | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Christina PhamG | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashna TambeG | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ese OgbevireG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Drexel
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly RulloG | 38 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Laine McGurkG | 38 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
| Julia Garcia RoigG | 35 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Molly LavinF | 25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Bria WatkinsG | 21 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Megan RulloG | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Aisha DaboF | 18 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Emilee JonesG | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |