Idaho St at South Dakota
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Sanford Coyote Sports Center. Idaho St our rank 167 · 3-1; South Dakota our rank 130 · 3-0.
Who will win Idaho St vs South Dakota?
The model gives South Dakota a 71% chance to beat Idaho State, with a projected score of South Dakota 62, Idaho St 55.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota | |||||
| JoyceG · 31 min | 13.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 15+ 37% | |
| WilliamsonF · 26 min | 9.9 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 48% | |
| RobinsonG · 19 min | 8.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 34% | |
| SchlagelG · 28 min | 7.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 5+ 68% | |
| Idaho St | |||||
| CaldwellG · 30 min | 9.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| ValentineG · 28 min | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 10+ 32% | |
| HutkaF · 24 min | 6.9 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 5+ 64% | |
| Wilkerson · 23 min | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Molly Joyce: Idaho St 33%South Dakota 67%
The white mark is the call with her: South Dakota 71%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | South Dakota without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota | ||||
| Molly Joyce | 1.5 | 67% | −4 | 56–62 |
| Bri Robinson | 1.2 | 68% | −3 | 56–62 |
| Tori Schlagel | 1.2 | 68% | −3 | 56–62 |
| Jenna Hopp | 0.9 | 69% | −2 | 56–62 |
| Idaho St | ||||
| Maeva Gauffrenet | 1.1 | 74% | +3 | 55–63 |
| Asa Wolfram | 1.1 | 74% | +3 | 55–63 |
| Krystal Arnason | 0.9 | 74% | +3 | 55–63 |
| Clare Valentine | 0.8 | 73% | +2 | 55–63 |
Change is in South Dakota's win chance, in points. Scores read Idaho St, then South Dakota. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Idaho St 3-1LWWW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 61.8 and allowing 47.2
South Dakota 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 54-49vs Creighton
- Nov 6W 68-56vs UT Rio Grande
- Nov 2W 95-38vs York (NE)
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 72.3 and allowing 47.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Idaho St | South Dakota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.3 243rd | 88.8 202nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.7 90th | 87.3 69th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 71.5 225th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.9% 98th | 44.7% 232nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.2% 7th | 42.9% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.6% 333rd | 26.7% 335th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 182nd | 32.7% 184th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 60th | 0.30 1st |
The widest gap: South Dakota's defense (69th) against Idaho St's offense (243rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Idaho St 26, South Dakota 30
- First-half margin
- South Dakota by 4.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 55.7
- Projected second half
- Idaho St 29, South Dakota 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 61.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Idaho St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 32.2 scored, 20.0 allowed
- South Dakota, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 23.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Idaho St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspen CaldwellG | 30 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Clare ValentineG | 28 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Bojana RadnjicG | 25 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Maggie HutkaF | 24 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Jazzy WilkersonNA | 23 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Krystal ArnasonF | 21 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Emma BryantG | 18 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Asa WolframF | 13 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 60% | |||||
South Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly JoyceG | 31 | 13.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Tori SchlagelG | 28 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Latazia WilliamsonF | 26 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Livi DownsG | 24 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Bri RobinsonG | 19 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Alyssa BartlettG | 18 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jenna HoppG | 14 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Ava MillerF | 13 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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