Creighton 49, South Dakota 54
Final. Women's · Wednesday, November 11, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Sanford Pentagon. Creighton our rank 59 · 2-1; South Dakota our rank 130 · 3-0.
Who won Creighton vs South Dakota?
Final: South Dakota 54, Creighton 49. Before tip-off the model gave South Dakota a 8% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 18.1 points for Creighton. Molly Joyce scored 14 for South Dakota; Neleigh Gessert had 12 for Creighton.
Prediction logged before tip-off; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | |||||
| Zediker · 30 min | 18.9 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 20+ 43% | |
| Gessert · 26 min | 11.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 61% | |
| Heathcock · 31 min | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| Holloway · 27 min | 8.1 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 34% | |
| South Dakota | |||||
| Joyce · 28 min | 10.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 53% | |
| Williamson · 23 min | 7.9 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 33% | |
| Robinson · 20 min | 7.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 31% | |
| Schlagel · 24 min | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ava Zediker: Creighton 86%South Dakota 14%
The white mark is the call with her: Creighton 92%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Creighton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | ||||
| Ava Zediker | 3.7 | 86% | −6 | 74–60 |
| Nia Holloway | 3.5 | 87% | −5 | 74–60 |
| Allison Heathcock | 2.8 | 88% | −4 | 74–59 |
| Neleigh Gessert | 2.6 | 88% | −4 | 75–59 |
| South Dakota | ||||
| Molly Joyce | 1.5 | 93% | +1 | 77–57 |
| Bri Robinson | 1.2 | 93% | +1 | 76–57 |
| Tori Schlagel | 1.2 | 93% | +1 | 76–57 |
| Jenna Hopp | 0.9 | 93% | +1 | 76–57 |
Change is in Creighton's win chance, in points. Scores read Creighton, then South Dakota. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Creighton 2-1WW
- Nov 9W 66-60at N Dakota St
- Nov 2W 73-71at S Dakota St
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 69.5 and allowing 65.5
South Dakota 3-0WW
- Nov 6W 68-56vs UT Rio Grande
- Nov 2W 95-38vs York (NE)
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 81.5 and allowing 47.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Creighton | South Dakota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.0 89th | 88.8 202nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.9 43rd | 87.3 69th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 71.5 225th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.2% 264th | 44.7% 232nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.5% 174th | 42.9% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.9% 15th | 26.7% 335th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 250th | 32.7% 184th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 62nd | 0.30 1st |
The widest gap: Creighton's defense (43rd) against South Dakota's offense (202nd), of 363 teams.
First half
South Dakota led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 11.4 points and the total by 24.3.
- At halftime
- Creighton 19, South Dakota 20
- Projected halftime score
- Creighton 37, South Dakota 26
- First-half margin
- Creighton by 10.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Creighton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 30.0 scored, 29.5 allowed
- South Dakota, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 42.5 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections, and what happened
Creighton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allison HeathcockG | 3031 | 19.0 | 46.0 | 22.3 | 01.2 |
| Ava ZedikerG | 3530 | 1018.9 | 14.1 | 03.0 | 10.7 |
| Nia HollowayF | 1827 | 08.1 | 36.8 | 00.9 | 00.2 |
| Neleigh GessertG | 1926 | 1211.9 | 22.7 | 01.1 | 22.0 |
| Mya MooreG | 2521 | 106.7 | 22.2 | 01.9 | 20.5 |
| Norah GessertG | 1820 | 04.1 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 00.6 |
| Kendall McGeeG | 1418 | 46.1 | 22.7 | 12.2 | 00.5 |
South Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly JoyceG | 3428 | 1410.7 | 11.5 | 31.2 | 01.0 |
| Tori SchlagelG | 3324 | 66.4 | 73.1 | 21.4 | 00.5 |
| Latazia WilliamsonF | 2923 | 127.9 | 115.4 | 10.6 | 00.2 |
| Livi DownsG | 2723 | 76.0 | 63.2 | 21.5 | 20.6 |
| Bri RobinsonG | 1620 | 77.7 | 22.7 | 22.0 | 00.4 |
| Alyssa BartlettG | 2118 | 43.3 | 52.4 | 11.3 | 00.2 |
| Jenna HoppG | 1017 | 04.2 | 02.0 | 00.7 | 00.6 |
| Ava MillerF | 816 | 05.5 | 44.4 | 00.7 | 00.6 |
Projections saved before tip-off and not changed since. Points were off by 3.6 a player in this game. How they have done all season