Loyola Chicago at Illinois St
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at CEFCU Arena. Loyola Chicago our rank 244 · 2-1; Illinois St our rank 117 · 4-0.
Who will win Loyola Chicago vs Illinois St?
The model gives Illinois State a 91% chance to beat Loyola Chicago, with a projected score of Illinois St 77, Loyola Chicago 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois St | |||||
| ThomasF · 30 min | 15.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 15+ 54% | |
| ChickenF · 29 min | 14.0 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 15+ 43% | |
| MporokosoG · 27 min | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| FaytaG · 33 min | 11.9 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 10+ 62% | |
| Loyola Chicago | |||||
| VaughnF · 24 min | 8.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 34% | |
| NtambueG · 30 min | 7.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 33% | |
| MercilleG · 24 min | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 60% | |
| Le FaouF · 21 min | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trista Fayta: Loyola Chicago 12%Illinois St 88%
The white mark is the call with her: Illinois St 91%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Illinois St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois St | ||||
| Trista Fayta | 2.1 | 88% | −3 | 61–75 |
| Nevaeh Thomas | 1.8 | 88% | −3 | 61–76 |
| Hannah Chicken | 1.4 | 89% | −2 | 61–76 |
| Grace Nelson | 1.0 | 90% | −1 | 60–76 |
| Loyola Chicago | ||||
| Brooklyn Vaughn | 0.6 | 92% | +1 | 60–77 |
| MD Ntambue | 0.5 | 92% | +1 | 60–77 |
Change is in Illinois St's win chance, in points. Scores read Loyola Chicago, then Illinois St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Loyola Chicago 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 61.3 and allowing 71.3
Illinois St 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 75-66vs Green Bay
- Nov 7W 96-54vs Augustana (IL)
- Nov 5W 91-87at Dayton
- Nov 2W 106-69vs Chicago St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 92.0 and allowing 69.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Loyola Chicago | Illinois St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.3 244th | 97.9 91st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.2 260th | 94.2 175th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 285th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.2% 308th | 48.0% 50th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.9% 263rd | 46.4% 240th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.4% 297th | 22.8% 118th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 136th | 32.2% 207th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 109th | 0.24 55th |
The widest gap: Illinois St's offense (91st) against Loyola Chicago's defense (260th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Loyola Chicago 28, Illinois St 37
- First-half margin
- Illinois St by 9.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.7
- Projected second half
- Loyola Chicago 32, Illinois St 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Loyola Chicago, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.0 scored, 39.0 allowed
- Illinois St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.8 scored, 32.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Loyola Chicago
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD NtambueG | 30 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Mireia JuradoG | 29 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Rosalie MercilleG | 24 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Brooklyn VaughnF | 24 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Angela Le FaouF | 21 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Kendall HendrixG | 19 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Gabby WilkeF | 17 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Gemma WichmannF | 17 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
Illinois St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trista FaytaG | 33 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 54% · 5+ ast 57% | |||||
| Nevaeh ThomasF | 30 | 15.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 8+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Hannah ChickenF | 29 | 14.0 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 9+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Danyella MporokosoG | 27 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jaeden PrattG | 23 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Grace NelsonG | 20 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Madison AustinF | 12 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Chloe SpreenG | 11 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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