Arkansas St 74, Ball State 84
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Worthen Arena. Arkansas St our rank 199 · 0-3; Ball State our rank 120 · 1-2.
Who won Arkansas St vs Ball State?
Final: Ball State 84, Arkansas State 74. Before tip-off the model gave Ball State a 86% chance to win, with a projected margin of 15.1 points for Ball State. Grace Kingery scored 33 for Ball State; Crislyn Rose had 28 for Arkansas St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Tessa Towers: Arkansas St 20%Ball State 80%
The white mark is the call with her: Ball State 86%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Ball State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | ||||
| Tessa Towers | 3.5 | 80% | −6 | 79–91 |
| Grace Kingery | 2.7 | 82% | −4 | 79–91 |
| Aniss Tagayi | 1.7 | 84% | −2 | 79–92 |
| Karsyn Norman | 1.4 | 84% | −2 | 78–92 |
| Arkansas St | ||||
| Crislyn Rose | 2.5 | 90% | +4 | 76–94 |
Change is in Ball State's win chance, in points. Scores read Arkansas St, then Ball State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Arkansas St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Ball State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Arkansas St | Ball State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.5 240th | 99.4 75th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.7 166th | 95.8 214th |
| Possessions a game | 76.4 4th | 74.9 14th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.6% 325th | 44.9% 214th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.4% 170th | 49.9% 358th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 97th | 24.0% 223rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 315th | 34.7% 92nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 166th | 0.24 26th |
The widest gap: Ball State's offense (75th) against Arkansas St's defense (166th), of 363 teams.
First half
Ball State led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.7 points and the total by 12.8.
- At halftime
- Arkansas St 32, Ball State 36
- Projected halftime score
- Arkansas St 36, Ball State 45
- First-half margin
- Ball State by 8.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 80.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Arkansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crislyn RoseG | 34 | 28 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| Amina GrayG | 27 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Audreonia BensonG | 20 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Monica MarshG | 20 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Angela CarrollF | 17 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermesha FriersonG | 17 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ta'Niyah DavisG | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Maya ChocanoG | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Allyson FergusonF | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ball State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace KingeryG | 36 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| Lilli BarnesG | 30 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 0 |
| Faith WalkerG | 29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Tessa TowersF | 26 | 17 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Aniss TagayiG | 25 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Karsyn NormanG | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Helen HolleyG | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Giorgia GoriniG | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zhen VerburgtG | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |