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UIC at Iowa State

Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Hilton Coliseum. UIC our rank 150 · 3-1; Iowa State our rank 58 · 4-0.

Who will win UIC vs Iowa State?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Iowa State a 92% chance to beat UIC, with a projected score of Iowa State 78, UIC 61.

To winIowa State 92%UIC 8%
Projected score61–78UIC, then Iowa State
Margin17.0Iowa State · no line posted
Total138.5no line posted
First half28–38Iowa State ahead 82%
UIC by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Iowa State by 50Model: Iowa State by 17.0UIC by 10by 10by 30Iowa State by 50Model: Iowa State by 17.0

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Iowa State
TurnsekF · 28 min15.67.32.515+ 52%
BabbittG · 24 min13.53.40.815+ 40%
ConnorG · 24 min8.84.32.610+ 39%
BessetteG · 20 min8.53.31.810+ 37%
UIC
ColemanF · 25 min14.05.32.015+ 43%
ClaytonG · 28 min9.62.34.110+ 45%
FosterG · 26 min8.62.91.010+ 38%
KhedrG · 22 min7.32.90.95+ 67%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Ashleigh Connor: UIC 12%Iowa State 88%

The white mark is the call with her: Iowa State 92%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsIowa State without herChangeProjected score
Iowa State
Ashleigh Connor2.988%−462–76
Sienna Harvey2.888%−462–76
Mya Babbitt2.489%−362–77
Arianna Jackson2.389%−362–77
UIC
Julia Coleman2.294%+260–79
Evyn Carrier1.293%+160–78
Lyla Kahrimanovic0.893%+160–78
Nevaeh Foster0.793%+160–78

Change is in Iowa State's win chance, in points. Scores read UIC, then Iowa State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    UIC 3-1LWWW

    1. Nov 11W 87-50vs Chicago St
    2. Nov 8W 76-71vs Northwestern
    3. Nov 5W 71-58at Robert Morris
    4. Nov 2L 34-81at Ohio State
    Last 4
    3–1, scoring 67.0 and allowing 65.0

    Iowa State 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 12W 77-55vs Howard
    2. Nov 8W 77-61vs E Illinois
    3. Nov 5W 68-44vs Nicholls
    4. Nov 2W 90-61vs Grambling
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 78.0 and allowing 55.2

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    UICIowa State
    Points scored per 100 possessions94.1 126th103.1 50th
    Points allowed per 10094.7 186th87.8 72nd
    Possessions a game70.4 321st73.0 96th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.4% 252nd47.1% 89th
    Opponents' shooting43.0% 43rd43.3% 59th
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.5% 183rd21.8% 52nd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses36.8% 35th31.3% 262nd
    Free throws per shot0.21 210th0.21 202nd

    The widest gap: Iowa State's offense (50th) against UIC's defense (186th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    UIC 28, Iowa State 38
    First-half margin
    Iowa State by 9.8
    First-half points, both teams
    65.7
    Projected second half
    UIC 33, Iowa State 40
    Second-half points, both teams
    72.8
    Tied at the half
    4%
    UIC, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 32.2 allowed
    Iowa State, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 40.0 scored, 26.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    UIC

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Tutu ClaytonG289.62.34.11.0
    10+ pts 45% · 4+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 57%
    Miyah BrownG286.74.60.90.5
    5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 37%
    Nevaeh FosterG268.62.91.01.7
    10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 46%
    Julia ColemanF2514.05.32.00.1
    15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 55%
    Salma KhedrG227.32.90.90.4
    5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 32%
    Evyn CarrierC185.56.01.10.1
    5+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 30%
    Magdalena WinterC183.93.60.60.0
    5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 45%
    Aileen Becerril LanderosG132.91.50.60.6
    5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 45%

    Iowa State

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sienna HarveyG296.94.44.00.3
    5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 55%
    Tjasa TurnsekF2815.67.32.50.5
    15+ pts 52% · 8+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 43%
    Arianna JacksonG263.23.30.51.4
    5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 38%
    Mya BabbittG2413.53.40.82.3
    15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 59%
    Ashleigh ConnorG248.84.32.61.0
    10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 47%
    Alex-Anne BessetteG208.53.31.80.7
    10+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 46%
    Xiao ZhangC157.83.70.60.1
    10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 47%
    Gift EzekielF145.93.30.90.0
    5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 23%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

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    3. 2 PMprojected 69-69Michigan St at Harvard, women's: game page
    4. 2 PMprojected 74-74Villanova at Fairfield, women's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 68-67Montana St at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 5:30 PMprojected 77-70UConn at Louisville, women's: game page
    UIC next: vs Lindenwood, Thu, Nov 19 · 84%Iowa State next: at Northern Iowa, Wed, Nov 18 · 74%UIC: schedule and oddsIowa State: schedule and odds