Grambling 61, Iowa State 90
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Hilton Coliseum. Grambling our rank 333 · 0-3; Iowa State our rank 58 · 4-0.
Who won Grambling vs Iowa State?
Final: Iowa State 90, Grambling 61. Before tip-off the model gave Iowa State a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 37.6 points for Iowa State. Tjasa Turnsek scored 19 for Iowa State; Princess Anderson had 15 for Grambling.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Ashleigh Connor: Grambling 1%Iowa State 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Iowa State >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Iowa State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | ||||
| Ashleigh Connor | 2.9 | 99% | −1 | 65–100 |
| Sienna Harvey | 2.8 | 99% | −1 | 65–100 |
| Mya Babbitt | 2.4 | 99% | −1 | 65–100 |
| Arianna Jackson | 2.3 | 99% | −1 | 65–100 |
Change is in Iowa State's win chance, in points. Scores read Grambling, then Iowa State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Grambling
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Iowa State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Grambling | Iowa State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 74.2 357th | 103.1 50th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.0 218th | 87.8 72nd |
| Possessions a game | 75.1 11th | 73.0 96th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 40.2% 359th | 47.1% 89th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.9% 204th | 43.3% 59th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.4% 298th | 21.8% 52nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.7% 187th | 31.3% 262nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 38th | 0.21 202nd |
The widest gap: Iowa State's defense (72nd) against Grambling's offense (357th), of 363 teams.
First half
Iowa State led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 8.4 points and the total by 2.1.
- At halftime
- Grambling 23, Iowa State 53
- Projected halftime score
- Grambling 28, Iowa State 50
- First-half margin
- Iowa State by 21.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 78.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Grambling
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Naya RossG | 23 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Princess AndersonG | 23 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Madison HoldenG | 20 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sophia GoncalvesC | 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Angel WilkinsonG | 18 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Aeris MaconF | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Destiny LewisG | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mariam AlowonleF | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Johlana TatumG | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Iowa State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tjasa TurnsekF | 24 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Arianna JacksonG | 22 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Mya BabbittG | 22 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| Sienna HarveyG | 21 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Alex-Anne BessetteG | 18 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Ashleigh ConnorG | 17 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Gift EzekielF | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Emilija DakicG | 14 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Xiao ZhangC | 13 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 |