NC Central at George Mason
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at EagleBank Arena. NC Central our rank 349 · 2-3; George Mason our rank 88 · 2-2.
Who will win NC Central vs George Mason?
The model gives George Mason a >99% chance to beat North Carolina Central, with a projected score of George Mason 85, NC Central 51.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | |||||
| AmoatengG · 28 min | 16.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 15+ 56% | |
| ShealsG · 28 min | 15.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 15+ 51% | |
| BobG · 22 min | 10.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 50% | |
| YancyG · 25 min | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 43% | |
| NC Central | |||||
| MorrisG · 30 min | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 45% | |
| AmerC · 24 min | 7.7 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 10+ 31% | |
| HintonG · 22 min | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 5+ 63% | |
| ClayG · 26 min | 6.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mary Amoateng: NC Central 1%George Mason 99%
The white mark is the call with her: George Mason >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | George Mason without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | ||||
| Mary Amoateng | 3.3 | 99% | −1 | 53–84 |
| Anovia Sheals | 2.6 | >99% | 0 | 52–84 |
| Lourdes Da Silva Costa | 2.0 | >99% | 0 | 52–84 |
| Mary-Kate Tshibuabua | 1.8 | >99% | 0 | 52–84 |
Change is in George Mason's win chance, in points. Scores read NC Central, then George Mason. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
NC Central 2-3LWLWL
- Nov 11L 40-109at North CarolinaDidn't cover +46.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 9W 60-56vs Fayetteville State
- Nov 7L 48-82at UNC Wilmington
- Nov 4W 99-73vs Johnson C. Smith
- Nov 2L 39-85at Virginia Tech
- Last five
- 2–3, scoring 57.2 and allowing 81.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NC Central | George Mason | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.7 346th | 97.5 93rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.1 343rd | 88.8 91st |
| Possessions a game | 75.0 12th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.7% 342nd | 45.9% 148th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 360th | 45.1% 156th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.9% 338th | 23.8% 207th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 242nd | 33.2% 157th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 176th | 0.25 16th |
The widest gap: George Mason's defense (91st) against NC Central's offense (346th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- NC Central 22, George Mason 42
- First-half margin
- George Mason by 19.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.6
- Projected second half
- NC Central 29, George Mason 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- NC Central, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 5 · 27.2 scored, 40.6 allowed
- George Mason, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.5 scored, 31.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
NC Central
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria MorrisG | 30 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Eboni ClayG | 26 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Shrouq AmerC | 24 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 50% | |||||
| Aysia HintonG | 22 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 29% to play · 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Chloe CrawfordF | 21 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Amaya HarrisG | 19 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Kenadi BanksG | 18 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Dianna BlakeF | 18 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Aysia Hinton (25 min a game).
George Mason
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary AmoatengG | 28 | 16.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 57% · 5+ ast 42% | |||||
| Anovia ShealsG | 28 | 15.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Mary-Kate TshibuabuaF | 26 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Summer YancyG | 25 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 46% to play · 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Lourdes Da Silva CostaF | 24 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kayla JohnsonG | 24 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Madison BobG | 22 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Trinity MassenburgF | 16 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
Missed the last game: Summer Yancy (32 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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