NC Central at VCU
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Siegel Center. NC Central our rank 349 · 2-3; VCU our rank 173 · 1-1.
Who will win NC Central vs VCU?
The model gives VCU a 98% chance to beat North Carolina Central, with a projected score of VCU 80, NC Central 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | |||||
| SpencerG · 32 min | 18.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 20+ 39% | |
| Toribio SaezG · 31 min | 12.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 10+ 63% | |
| ToresaniF · 25 min | 11.0 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 56% | |
| ZachariahF · 24 min | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| NC Central | |||||
| MorrisG · 31 min | 10.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| AmerC · 24 min | 8.2 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 35% | |
| HintonG · 23 min | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 5+ 68% | |
| ClayG · 26 min | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Macy Spencer: NC Central 3%VCU 97%
The white mark is the call with her: VCU 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | VCU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | ||||
| Macy Spencer | 2.8 | 97% | −1 | 56–79 |
| Ann Zachariah | 0.6 | 98% | 0 | 55–80 |
| Alexis Riggs | 0.5 | 98% | 0 | 55–80 |
Change is in VCU's win chance, in points. Scores read NC Central, then VCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
NC Central 2-3LWLWL
- Nov 11L 40-109at North CarolinaDidn't cover +46.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 9W 60-56vs Fayetteville State
- Nov 7L 48-82at UNC Wilmington
- Nov 4W 99-73vs Johnson C. Smith
- Nov 2L 39-85at Virginia Tech
- Last five
- 2–3, scoring 57.2 and allowing 81.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
VCU 1-1WL
- Nov 12L 66-77vs Virginia Tech
- Nov 3W 67-43vs C Connecticut
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 66.5 and allowing 60.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NC Central | VCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.7 346th | 90.2 173rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.1 343rd | 93.5 162nd |
| Possessions a game | 75.0 12th | 72.2 156th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.7% 342nd | 46.9% 101st |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 360th | 44.5% 124th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.9% 338th | 25.1% 288th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 242nd | 28.3% 353rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 176th | 0.22 152nd |
The widest gap: VCU's defense (162nd) against NC Central's offense (346th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- NC Central 24, VCU 39
- First-half margin
- VCU by 14.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.8
- Projected second half
- NC Central 30, VCU 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- NC Central, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 5 · 27.2 scored, 40.6 allowed
- VCU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 31.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
NC Central
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria MorrisG | 31 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Eboni ClayG | 26 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Shrouq AmerC | 24 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Aysia HintonG | 23 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 29% to play · 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Chloe CrawfordF | 21 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Amaya HarrisG | 19 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Kenadi BanksG | 18 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Dianna BlakeF | 18 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
Missed the last game: Aysia Hinton (25 min a game).
VCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy SpencerG | 32 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Ada Toribio SaezG | 31 | 12.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Nicole ToresaniF | 25 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Ann ZachariahF | 24 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Laia CrespinG | 24 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Alexis RiggsG | 19 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Cyriah GriffinG | 19 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Katarina KnezevicG | 14 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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