Who will win VCU vs Maine?
The model gives Maine a 57% chance to beat VCU, with a projected score of Maine 69, VCU 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maine | |||||
| GruberC · 26 min | 12.6 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 15+ 34% | |
| WoodsG · 35 min | 11.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 10+ 60% | |
| FitzpatrickG · 32 min | 11.2 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 10+ 57% | |
| SainF · 27 min | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 46% | |
 VCU | |||||
| SpencerG · 36 min | 17.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 15+ 62% | |
| Toribio SaezG · 35 min | 11.6 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| ToresaniF · 27 min | 10.1 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 49% | |
| ZachariahF · 26 min | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lizzy Gruber: VCU 48%Maine 52%
The white mark is the call with her: Maine 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Maine without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | ||||
| Lizzy Gruber | 1.6 | 52% | −5 | 67–68 |
| Kaliyah Sain | 0.8 | 55% | −2 | 67–68 |
| VCU | ||||
| Macy Spencer | 2.8 | 65% | +8 | 65–70 |
| Ann Zachariah | 0.6 | 59% | +2 | 66–69 |
| Alexis Riggs | 0.5 | 59% | +2 | 66–69 |
Change is in Maine's win chance, in points. Scores read VCU, then Maine. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
VCU 1-1WL
- Nov 12L 66-77vs Virginia Tech
- Nov 3W 67-43vs C Connecticut
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 66.5 and allowing 60.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| VCU | Maine | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.2 173rd | 92.7 141st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.5 162nd | 98.3 261st |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 156th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.9% 101st | 48.5% 35th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.5% 124th | 46.0% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.1% 288th | 23.3% 165th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.3% 353rd | 31.4% 259th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 152nd | 0.21 175th |
The widest gap: VCU's offense (173rd) against Maine's defense (261st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- VCU 31, Maine 33
- First-half margin
- Maine by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.9
- Projected second half
- VCU 35, Maine 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- VCU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 31.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Maine, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 37.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
VCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy SpencerG | 36 | 17.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 53% | |||||
| Ada Toribio SaezG | 35 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Nicole ToresaniF | 27 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Ann ZachariahF | 26 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Laia CrespinG | 26 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Alexis RiggsG | 19 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Cyriah GriffinG | 19 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Katarina KnezevicG | 13 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Maine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lala WoodsG | 35 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 57% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Maddie FitzpatrickG | 32 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 8+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Olivia AlvarezG | 29 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Kaliyah SainF | 27 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Lizzy GruberC | 26 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Emmie Streams-StevensG | 15 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Bailey BreenF | 11 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Abby PriceG | 11 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 28% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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