NC Central 39, Virginia Tech 85
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Cassell Coliseum. NC Central our rank 349 · 2-3; Virginia Tech our rank 34 · 4-0.
Who won NC Central vs Virginia Tech?
Final: Virginia Tech 85, North Carolina Central 39. Before tip-off the model gave Virginia Tech a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 36.5 points for Virginia Tech. Carleigh Wenzel scored 17 for Virginia Tech; Victoria Morris had 11 for NC Central.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Carleigh Wenzel: NC Central 1%Virginia Tech 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Virginia Tech >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Virginia Tech without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | ||||
| Carleigh Wenzel | 4.5 | 99% | −1 | 66–98 |
| Samyha Suffren | 4.0 | 99% | −1 | 65–98 |
| Alyssa Latham | 3.8 | 99% | −1 | 65–98 |
| Leila Wells | 3.3 | 99% | −1 | 65–98 |
Change is in Virginia Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read NC Central, then Virginia Tech. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
NC Central
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Virginia Tech
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NC Central | Virginia Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.7 346th | 102.7 53rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.1 343rd | 78.8 17th |
| Possessions a game | 75.0 12th | 73.6 65th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.7% 342nd | 44.9% 212th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 360th | 41.2% 13th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.9% 338th | 21.5% 32nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 242nd | 37.6% 21st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 176th | 0.20 246th |
The widest gap: Virginia Tech's defense (17th) against NC Central's offense (346th), of 363 teams.
First half
Virginia Tech led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 12.0 points and the total by 16.5.
- At halftime
- NC Central 14, Virginia Tech 47
- Projected halftime score
- NC Central 28, Virginia Tech 49
- First-half margin
- Virginia Tech by 21.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
NC Central
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria MorrisG | 31 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Dianna BlakeF | 27 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Shrouq AmerC | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Eboni ClayG | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenadi BanksG | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aysia HintonG | 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Amaya HarrisG | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaliyah GrantF | 13 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chloe CrawfordF | 12 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Virginia Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leila WellsG | 26 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Aniya TrentF | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Samyha SuffrenG | 24 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Carleigh WenzelG | 22 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Kate SearsG | 21 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jessica DimaroC | 20 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Kaleo AndersonG | 20 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Amani JenkinsF | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Francesca BaldassarreG | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |