Who will win Columbia vs Maryland?
The model gives Maryland a 89% chance to beat Columbia, with a projected score of Maryland 82, Columbia 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maryland | |||||
| MackG · 30 min | 17.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 20+ 38% | |
| OkananwaG · 25 min | 17.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 15+ 61% | |
| McDanielG · 24 min | 11.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| AgaraF · 22 min | 10.8 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 54% | |
 Columbia | |||||
| WeissG · 33 min | 18.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 20+ 40% | |
| BroomG · 30 min | 10.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 10+ 50% | |
| Ashley StevensonF · 28 min | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 46% | |
| HendersonG · 30 min | 7.0 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Oluchi Okananwa: Columbia 25%Maryland 75%
The white mark is the call with her: Maryland 89%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Maryland without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | ||||
| Oluchi Okananwa | 6.6 | 75% | −14 | 70–79 |
| Addi Mack | 5.5 | 78% | −11 | 70–79 |
| Bri McDaniel | 4.4 | 81% | −8 | 69–80 |
| Nunu Agara | 4.3 | 81% | −8 | 69–80 |
| Columbia | ||||
| Riley Weiss | 5.0 | 95% | +6 | 64–85 |
| Mia Broom | 3.5 | 93% | +4 | 65–84 |
| Fliss Henderson | 3.0 | 93% | +4 | 65–84 |
| Mary Ashley Stevenson | 2.6 | 92% | +3 | 66–84 |
Change is in Maryland's win chance, in points. Scores read Columbia, then Maryland. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Columbia 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 58-81vs MichiganDidn't cover +18.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 8W 84-64at Belmont
- Nov 6W 76-62vs Rhode Island
- Nov 2W 71-65vs Davidson
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 72.2 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Maryland 1-1LW
- Nov 8W 81-62vs George Mason
- Nov 2L 93-101vs South Carolina
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 87.0 and allowing 81.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Columbia | Maryland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 40th | 112.4 13th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 86.6 63rd | 81.9 33rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 156th | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 87th | 47.2% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.8% 140th | 45.9% 209th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.8% 210th | 22.1% 69th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.5% 57th | 34.6% 97th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 252nd | 0.20 257th |
The widest gap: Maryland's offense (13th) against Columbia's defense (63rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Columbia 31, Maryland 40
- First-half margin
- Maryland by 8.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.7
- Projected second half
- Columbia 36, Maryland 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Columbia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 33.5 scored, 30.5 allowed
- Maryland, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 34.0 scored, 45.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Columbia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley WeissG | 33 | 18.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Fliss HendersonG | 30 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 8+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Mia BroomG | 30 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Mary Ashley StevensonF | 28 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Hilke FeldrappeF | 26 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Nasi SimmonsG | 16 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Eirny ErinughaF | 12 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 3+ reb 40% | |||||
| Chloe DixG | 11 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Maryland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addi MackG | 30 | 17.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 4+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Oluchi OkananwaG | 25 | 17.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Bri McDanielG | 24 | 11.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nunu AgaraF | 22 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Lea BartelmeG | 20 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Trinity JonesG | 20 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Marya BoikoF | 17 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Jordyn JacksonG | 16 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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