Who will win Mercer vs Alabama?
The model gives Alabama a >99% chance to beat Mercer, with a projected score of Alabama 81, Mercer 46.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alabama | |||||
| AustinG · 28 min | 13.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 15+ 41% | |
| AndersonG · 24 min | 11.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| WestG · 20 min | 9.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| TorrenceF · 21 min | 9.2 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 42% | |
 Mercer | |||||
| AnamekweG · 26 min | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 33% | |
| HoltmanG · 28 min | 7.8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 10+ 32% | |
| O'DellG · 28 min | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| LoftonG · 20 min | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ace Austin: Mercer 1%Alabama 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Alabama >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Alabama without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | ||||
| Ace Austin | 4.1 | 99% | −1 | 48–79 |
| Aaliyah Roberson | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 47–79 |
| Naomi Jones | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 47–80 |
| Kylie Torrence | 2.2 | >99% | 0 | 47–80 |
| Mercer | ||||
| Ada Anamekwe | 0.7 | >99% | 0 | 45–81 |
Change is in Alabama's win chance, in points. Scores read Mercer, then Alabama. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mercer 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 54-45vs Charleston So
- Nov 8L 51-77at Wake Forest
- Nov 5W 69-61vs GA Southern
- Nov 2W 69-41vs North Greenville
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 60.8 and allowing 56.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mercer | Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 77.3 338th | 103.7 44th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.3 177th | 82.9 44th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.4% 256th | 48.6% 30th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 222nd | 40.7% 9th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 28.8% 354th | 22.8% 122nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 123rd | 35.4% 61st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 7th | 0.22 144th |
The widest gap: Alabama's defense (44th) against Mercer's offense (338th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mercer 20, Alabama 40
- First-half margin
- Alabama by 20.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.1
- Projected second half
- Mercer 26, Alabama 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mercer, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 29.2 scored, 30.8 allowed
- Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 5 of 5 · 44.6 scored, 27.4 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mercer
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail HoltmanG | 28 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Micah O'DellG | 28 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Ada AnamekweG | 26 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Avani TellaG | 22 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jala WilsonF | 20 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
| Maliyah LoftonG | 20 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kimora JenkinsG | 17 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| JahNaesia SpiersG | 16 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 57% | |||||
Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace AustinG | 28 | 13.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Amirah AndersonG | 24 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Tianna ChambersG | 22 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Naomi JonesF | 22 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Kylie TorrenceF | 21 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Alayna WestG | 20 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Aaliyah RobersonF | 20 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Mykelle RichardsF | 16 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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