Alabama v Florida A&M
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 8:30 PM ET at State Farm Field House. Alabama our rank 42 · 4-1; Florida A&M our rank 350 · 1-2.
Who will win Alabama vs Florida A&M?
The model gives Alabama a >99% chance to beat Florida A&M, with a projected score of Alabama 88, Florida A&M 47.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | |||||
| AustinG · 28 min | 14.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 15+ 46% | |
| AndersonG · 24 min | 12.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 15+ 34% | |
| WestG · 20 min | 10.2 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 10+ 50% | |
| TorrenceF · 21 min | 9.7 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| Florida A&M | |||||
| RhodesG · 28 min | 8.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| WilliamsG · 25 min | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 62% | |
| GrantG · 23 min | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 5+ 60% | |
| PurifoyPG · 26 min | 5.8 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ace Austin: Alabama >99%Florida A&M <1%
The white mark is the call with her: Alabama >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Alabama without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | ||||
| Ace Austin | 4.1 | >99% | 0 | 86–49 |
| Aaliyah Roberson | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 87–49 |
| Naomi Jones | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 87–49 |
| Kylie Torrence | 2.2 | >99% | 0 | 87–48 |
Change is in Alabama's win chance, in points. Scores read Alabama, then Florida A&M. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alabama 4-1WWWWL
- Nov 12L 70-75at Memphis
- Nov 8W 68-63at TulaneDidn't cover −17.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 5W 96-43vs Alabama A&M
- Nov 4W 118-45vs LSU N Orleans
- Nov 2W 92-56vs Queens
- Last five
- 4–1, scoring 88.8 and allowing 56.4
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Florida A&M 1-2LLW
- Nov 12W 74-67vs Albany State
- Nov 8L 42-101at Florida St
- Nov 3L 56-85at UCF
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 57.3 and allowing 84.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alabama | Florida A&M | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.7 44th | 77.0 340th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.9 44th | 104.8 346th |
| Possessions a game | 73.3 76th | 72.8 110th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.6% 30th | 42.0% 339th |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.7% 9th | 47.7% 301st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.8% 122nd | 24.6% 266th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.4% 61st | 31.1% 276th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 144th | 0.23 68th |
The widest gap: Alabama's offense (44th) against Florida A&M's defense (346th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alabama 44, Florida A&M 20
- First-half margin
- Alabama by 23.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.3
- Projected second half
- Alabama 44, Florida A&M 27
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 5 of 5 · 44.6 scored, 27.4 allowed
- Florida A&M, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 19.7 scored, 43.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace AustinG | 28 | 14.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Amirah AndersonG | 24 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Tianna ChambersG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Naomi JonesF | 22 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Kylie TorrenceF | 21 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Alayna WestG | 20 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 7+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Aaliyah RobersonF | 20 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Mykelle RichardsF | 16 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
Florida A&M
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niah RhodesG | 28 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Tahnyjia PurifoyPG | 26 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 22% to play · 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Persais WilliamsG | 25 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
| Shaniyah McCarthyG | 24 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Miya Giles-JonesG | 24 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 53% | |||||
| Kamryn GrantG | 23 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Kristen JohnsonG | 22 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Dijona BerrienF | 16 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tahnyjia Purifoy (35 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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