Mercer at Gardner-Webb
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Paul Porter Arena. Mercer our rank 299 · 3-1; Gardner-Webb our rank 331 · 1-1.
Who will win Mercer vs Gardner-Webb?
The model gives Mercer a 51% chance to beat Gardner-Webb, with a projected score of Mercer 59, Gardner-Webb 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer | |||||
| HoltmanG · 33 min | 11.2 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 57% | |
| AnamekweG · 30 min | 11.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 57% | |
| O'DellG · 32 min | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 54% | |
| LoftonG · 19 min | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5+ 65% | |
| Gardner-Webb | |||||
| TullG · 29 min | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 46% | |
| OfunniyinF · 25 min | 8.7 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 39% | |
| ThompsonG · 21 min | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5+ 62% | |
| HarrisG · 18 min | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ada Anamekwe: Mercer 48%Gardner-Webb 52%
The white mark is the call with her: Mercer 51%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Mercer without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer | ||||
| Ada Anamekwe | 0.7 | 48% | −3 | 59–59 |
Change is in Mercer's win chance, in points. Scores read Mercer, then Gardner-Webb. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mercer 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 54-45vs Charleston So
- Nov 8L 51-77at Wake Forest
- Nov 5W 69-61vs GA Southern
- Nov 2W 69-41vs North Greenville
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 60.8 and allowing 56.0
Gardner-Webb 1-1WL
- Nov 11L 54-59vs UNC Greensboro
- Nov 5W 84-72at Catawba
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 69.0 and allowing 65.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mercer | Gardner-Webb | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 77.3 338th | 79.2 321st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.3 177th | 100.9 311th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 70.7 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.4% 256th | 43.3% 301st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 222nd | 46.5% 244th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 28.8% 354th | 22.8% 120th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 123rd | 30.9% 284th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 7th | 0.19 310th |
The widest gap: Mercer's defense (177th) against Gardner-Webb's offense (321st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mercer 28, Gardner-Webb 28
- First-half margin
- Mercer by 0.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 55.8
- Projected second half
- Mercer 31, Gardner-Webb 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 61.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mercer, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 29.2 scored, 30.8 allowed
- Gardner-Webb, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 28.5 scored, 28.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mercer
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail HoltmanG | 33 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Micah O'DellG | 32 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ada AnamekweG | 30 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Avani TellaG | 23 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jala WilsonF | 20 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 50% | |||||
| Maliyah LoftonG | 19 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Kimora JenkinsG | 16 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| JahNaesia SpiersG | 15 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
Gardner-Webb
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laila TullG | 29 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Makayla LegetteG | 28 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Amira OfunniyinF | 25 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Sara MenendezG | 24 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kayla MartinG | 24 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Taryn ThompsonG | 21 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Shiriah HarrisG | 18 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Jordan BrooksG | 17 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 62% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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