Who will win UCLA vs Tennessee?
The model gives UCLA a 52% chance to beat Tennessee, with a projected score of UCLA 72, Tennessee 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCLA | |||||
| BettsF · 27 min | 11.4 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| GardinerF · 25 min | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| BrownF · 24 min | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 10+ 44% | |
| AarnisaloG · 25 min | 9.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 10+ 43% | |
 Tennessee | |||||
| SmikleG · 22 min | 15.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 15+ 51% | |
| MinusG · 20 min | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| WhiteG · 18 min | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 33% | |
| FauntleroyG · 20 min | 7.3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sienna Betts: UCLA 32%Tennessee 68%
The white mark is the call with her: UCLA 52%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UCLA without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | ||||
| Sienna Betts | 5.8 | 32% | −20 | 69–74 |
| Donovyn Hunter | 5.0 | 35% | −17 | 70–74 |
| Addy Brown | 4.8 | 35% | −17 | 70–74 |
| Timea Gardiner | 4.8 | 35% | −17 | 70–74 |
| Tennessee | ||||
| Kaylene Smikle | 4.0 | 67% | +15 | 74–69 |
| Aaliyah Moore | 3.6 | 66% | +14 | 74–70 |
| Rylie Theuerkauf | 3.1 | 64% | +12 | 74–70 |
| Fatmata Janneh | 3.0 | 64% | +12 | 74–70 |
Change is in UCLA's win chance, in points. Scores read UCLA, then Tennessee. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UCLA 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.7 and allowing 46.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UCLA | Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.7 15th | 111.2 18th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 72.8 4th | 80.5 22nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 272nd | 76.2 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.0% 142nd | 46.4% 124th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.2% 14th | 43.4% 61st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.4% 90th | 19.1% 1st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.1% 46th | 38.5% 8th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 353rd | 0.22 155th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UCLA 34, Tennessee 34
- First-half margin
- UCLA by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- UCLA 38, Tennessee 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UCLA, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
- Tennessee, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.8 scored, 30.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UCLA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovyn HunterG | 30 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Sienna BettsF | 27 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| KK BransfordG | 27 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Elina AarnisaloG | 25 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 46% to play · 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Timea GardinerF | 25 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Addy BrownF | 24 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Somto OkaforG | 23 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Bonnie DeasG | 18 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elina Aarnisalo (28 min a game).
Tennessee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylene SmikleG | 22 | 15.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kennedy FauntleroyG | 20 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Gabby MinusG | 20 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Rylie TheuerkaufG | 20 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Jada EadsG | 19 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Naomi WhiteG | 18 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Fatmata JannehF | 18 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Aaliyah MooreF | 16 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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