Who will win Nebraska vs Creighton?
The model gives Nebraska a 72% chance to beat Creighton, with a projected score of Nebraska 69, Creighton 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nebraska | |||||
| PrinceG · 28 min | 16.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 15+ 59% | |
| HargroveF · 26 min | 12.5 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| KoupalF · 23 min | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| PottsF · 20 min | 8.6 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 10+ 38% | |
 Creighton | |||||
| ZedikerG · 33 min | 15.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 15+ 49% | |
| GessertG · 25 min | 10.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 50% | |
| MooreG · 23 min | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5+ 61% | |
| HeathcockG · 32 min | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Britt Prince: Nebraska 53%Creighton 47%
The white mark is the call with her: Nebraska 72%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Nebraska without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | ||||
| Britt Prince | 6.2 | 53% | −19 | 66–65 |
| Amiah Hargrove | 5.1 | 57% | −15 | 67–65 |
| Natalie Potts | 3.4 | 62% | −10 | 68–64 |
| Logan Nissley | 3.2 | 63% | −9 | 68–64 |
| Creighton | ||||
| Ava Zediker | 3.7 | 81% | +9 | 71–60 |
| Nia Holloway | 3.5 | 81% | +9 | 71–61 |
| Allison Heathcock | 2.8 | 79% | +7 | 71–61 |
| Neleigh Gessert | 2.6 | 79% | +7 | 71–61 |
Change is in Nebraska's win chance, in points. Scores read Nebraska, then Creighton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Nebraska 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-35vs NC A&T
- Nov 7W 98-35vs W Illinois
- Nov 2W 81-54vs San José St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.0 and allowing 41.3
Creighton 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 49-54vs South Dakota
- Nov 9W 66-60at N Dakota St
- Nov 2W 73-71at S Dakota St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 62.7 and allowing 61.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Nebraska | Creighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.8 25th | 98.0 89th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 78.1 12th | 82.9 43rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.8% 26th | 44.2% 264th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.2% 104th | 45.5% 174th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 191st | 20.9% 15th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.3% 67th | 31.5% 250th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 246th | 0.23 62nd |
The widest gap: Nebraska's defense (12th) against Creighton's offense (89th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Nebraska 33, Creighton 29
- First-half margin
- Nebraska by 4.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.4
- Projected second half
- Nebraska 36, Creighton 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Nebraska, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 17.7 allowed
- Creighton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.3 scored, 26.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Nebraska
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Britt PrinceG | 28 | 16.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 3+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Amiah HargroveF | 26 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Ashlyn KoupalF | 23 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Allison WeidnerG | 22 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Kennadi WilliamsG | 22 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 28% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Natalie PottsF | 20 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Maddi StewartG | 17 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Logan NissleyG | 16 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
Creighton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava ZedikerG | 33 | 15.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Allison HeathcockG | 32 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Neleigh GessertG | 25 | 10.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Nia HollowayF | 25 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Mya MooreG | 23 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Norah GessertG | 20 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Kendall McGeeG | 17 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Kate AmelotteG | 12 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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