Texas Tech v South Florida
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at State Farm Field House. Texas Tech our rank 33 · 2-0; South Florida our rank 78 · 3-1.
Who will win Texas Tech vs South Florida?
The model gives Texas Tech a 80% chance to beat South Florida, with a projected score of Texas Tech 71, South Florida 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | |||||
| HooksG · 26 min | 13.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 15+ 37% | |
| BristowG · 33 min | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 59% | |
| OkechukwuC · 22 min | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 54% | |
| ColeG · 31 min | 10.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 10+ 51% | |
| South Florida | |||||
| IngramG · 34 min | 12.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 10+ 63% | |
| PorterG · 30 min | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 52% | |
| DiakiteF · 27 min | 10.4 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 51% | |
| PuryearF · 29 min | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 46% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jalynn Bristow: Texas Tech 61%South Florida 39%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas Tech 80%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas Tech without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | ||||
| Jalynn Bristow | 7.0 | 61% | −19 | 67–64 |
| Destinee Hooks | 3.9 | 70% | −10 | 69–62 |
| Jalayah Ingram | 3.7 | 71% | −9 | 69–62 |
| Ambrosia Cole | 2.8 | 73% | −7 | 69–61 |
| South Florida | ||||
| Stefanie Ingram | 2.8 | 86% | +6 | 72–59 |
| Fatou Diakite | 2.7 | 86% | +6 | 72–59 |
| Kendall Puryear | 2.2 | 85% | +5 | 72–59 |
| Hannah Kohn | 2.1 | 85% | +5 | 72–59 |
Change is in Texas Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas Tech, then South Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas Tech 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 71.0 and allowing 32.5
South Florida 3-1WWLW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 71.0 and allowing 68.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas Tech | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.9 72nd | 102.2 57th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 75.6 7th | 91.2 125th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.9% 283rd | 48.7% 27th |
| Opponents' shooting | 39.6% 2nd | 45.8% 196th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.0% 221st | 23.7% 202nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 98th | 38.0% 14th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 11th | 0.20 230th |
The widest gap: Texas Tech's offense (72nd) against South Florida's defense (125th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas Tech 34, South Florida 28
- First-half margin
- Texas Tech by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.0
- Projected second half
- Texas Tech 37, South Florida 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas Tech, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 36.5 scored, 13.5 allowed
- South Florida, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 28.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalynn BristowG | 33 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ambrosia ColeG | 31 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Destinee HooksG | 26 | 13.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Tahys Da SilvaG | 25 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Stephanie OkechukwuC | 22 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Jalayah IngramG | 21 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Martina AnyangoF | 20 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Natalia JordanG | 10 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
South Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanie IngramG | 34 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 56% · 5+ ast 43% | |||||
| Hannah KohnG | 34 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Amourie PorterG | 30 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Kendall PuryearF | 29 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Fatou DiakiteF | 27 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Kate NovikG | 24 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Savannah CurryG | 16 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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