FIU at South Florida
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Yuengling Center. FIU our rank 268 · 1-1; South Florida our rank 78 · 3-1.
Who will win FIU vs South Florida?
The model gives South Florida a 98% chance to beat Florida International, with a projected score of South Florida 80, FIU 55.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | |||||
| IngramG · 32 min | 14.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 15+ 44% | |
| DiakiteF · 26 min | 12.6 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 15+ 34% | |
| PorterG · 29 min | 12.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| PuryearF · 28 min | 11.6 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| FIU | |||||
| Ferrer LealG · 33 min | 7.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 10+ 32% | |
| DoumbiaG · 21 min | 7.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 31% | |
| JamesG · 25 min | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 5+ 69% | |
| PrestonF · 23 min | 7.2 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Stefanie Ingram: FIU 4%South Florida 96%
The white mark is the call with her: South Florida 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | South Florida without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | ||||
| Stefanie Ingram | 2.8 | 96% | −2 | 56–78 |
| Fatou Diakite | 2.7 | 96% | −2 | 56–78 |
| Kendall Puryear | 2.2 | 96% | −2 | 56–79 |
| Hannah Kohn | 2.1 | 96% | −2 | 56–79 |
| FIU | ||||
| Shorna Preston | 1.5 | 98% | 0 | 54–81 |
Change is in South Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read FIU, then South Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FIU 1-1LW
- Nov 10W 63-57vs Stetson
- Nov 3L 64-75vs Jacksonville
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 63.5 and allowing 66.0
South Florida 3-1WWLW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 71.0 and allowing 68.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FIU | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.0 318th | 102.2 57th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.5 161st | 91.2 125th |
| Possessions a game | 74.5 24th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.8% 150th | 48.7% 27th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 164th | 45.8% 196th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 28.3% 351st | 23.7% 202nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 258th | 38.0% 14th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 52nd | 0.20 230th |
The widest gap: South Florida's defense (125th) against FIU's offense (318th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FIU 25, South Florida 39
- First-half margin
- South Florida by 14.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.9
- Projected second half
- FIU 30, South Florida 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FIU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
- South Florida, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 28.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FIU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grecia Ferrer LealG | 33 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| BreAunna WardG | 25 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Fantasia JamesG | 25 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Shorna PrestonF | 23 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Mable DoumbiaG | 21 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Adama Badjie ColyG | 20 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Paula AcinG | 16 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Malia TharpeF | 15 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 40% | |||||
South Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanie IngramG | 32 | 14.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 50% · 6+ ast 51% | |||||
| Hannah KohnG | 31 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Amourie PorterG | 29 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Kendall PuryearF | 28 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Fatou DiakiteF | 26 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Kate NovikG | 23 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Savannah CurryG | 16 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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