Who will win FIU vs Miami?
The model gives Miami a >99% chance to beat Florida International, with a projected score of Miami 83, FIU 49.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami | |||||
| RavivG · 29 min | 13.5 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 15+ 40% | |
| AdamsG · 28 min | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| KimpsonG · 28 min | 10.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| ZodiaC · 18 min | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 38% | |
 FIU | |||||
| Ferrer LealG · 31 min | 6.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 5+ 63% | |
| DoumbiaG · 20 min | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 5+ 64% | |
| JamesG · 24 min | 6.6 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 5+ 62% | |
| PrestonF · 22 min | 6.5 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ahnay Adams: FIU 1%Miami 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Miami >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Miami without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | ||||
| Ahnay Adams | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 51–81 |
| Gal Raviv | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 51–81 |
| Amarachi Kimpson | 3.7 | 99% | −1 | 51–81 |
| Gianna Corbitt | 3.2 | 99% | −1 | 50–81 |
| FIU | ||||
| Shorna Preston | 1.5 | >99% | 0 | 48–84 |
Change is in Miami's win chance, in points. Scores read FIU, then Miami. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FIU 1-1LW
- Nov 10W 63-57vs Stetson
- Nov 3L 64-75vs Jacksonville
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 63.5 and allowing 66.0
Miami 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 78-46vs Saint Peter's
- Nov 8W 79-39vs Stetson
- Nov 5W 79-63vs Jacksonville
- Nov 2W 75-48vs FAU
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 77.8 and allowing 49.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FIU | Miami | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.0 318th | 106.7 31st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.5 161st | 84.5 56th |
| Possessions a game | 74.5 24th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.8% 150th | 49.7% 15th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 164th | 44.0% 85th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 28.3% 351st | 23.4% 178th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 258th | 37.1% 29th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 52nd | 0.21 216th |
The widest gap: Miami's defense (56th) against FIU's offense (318th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FIU 21, Miami 41
- First-half margin
- Miami by 19.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.4
- Projected second half
- FIU 27, Miami 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FIU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Miami, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 21.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FIU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grecia Ferrer LealG | 31 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| BreAunna WardG | 24 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Fantasia JamesG | 24 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Shorna PrestonF | 22 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Mable DoumbiaG | 20 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Adama Badjie ColyG | 19 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Paula AcinG | 16 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Malia TharpeF | 16 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 59% | |||||
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gal RavivG | 29 | 13.5 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 5+ ast 48% | |||||
| Amarachi KimpsonG | 28 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ahnay AdamsG | 28 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Gianna CorbittF | 20 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Natalie WetzelF | 19 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jess-Mine ZodiaC | 18 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Anna LiepinaF | 17 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Dayana MendesG | 17 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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