Kansas v S Dakota St
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:30 PM ET at T-Mobile Center. Kansas our rank 51 · 3-0; S Dakota St our rank 65 · 1-2.
Who will win Kansas vs S Dakota St?
The model gives Kansas a 60% chance to beat South Dakota State, with a projected score of Kansas 71, S Dakota St 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | |||||
| DavisF · 28 min | 19.8 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 20+ 48% | |
| NicholsG · 24 min | 13.1 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 15+ 37% | |
| WilliamsF · 27 min | 9.6 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| FandelG · 30 min | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 39% | |
| S Dakota St | |||||
| MeyerF · 27 min | 15.1 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 15+ 49% | |
| ShindelarG · 25 min | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 10+ 44% | |
| VaseckaG · 30 min | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 44% | |
| FoxG · 24 min | 8.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaliya Davis: Kansas 44%S Dakota St 56%
The white mark is the call with her: Kansas 60%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Kansas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | ||||
| Jaliya Davis | 5.2 | 44% | −16 | 69–71 |
| S'Mya Nichols | 4.2 | 47% | −13 | 69–70 |
| Regan Williams | 2.7 | 52% | −8 | 70–69 |
| Brittany Harshaw | 2.3 | 53% | −7 | 70–69 |
| S Dakota St | ||||
| Brooklyn Meyer | 6.0 | 77% | +17 | 74–65 |
| Emilee Fox | 2.2 | 67% | +7 | 72–67 |
| Mahli Abdouch | 2.0 | 66% | +6 | 72–67 |
| Katie Vasecka | 1.8 | 66% | +6 | 72–67 |
Change is in Kansas's win chance, in points. Scores read Kansas, then S Dakota St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Kansas 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.7 and allowing 49.3
S Dakota St 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 63-93at TexasDidn't cover +27.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 6W 76-54vs Northern Iowa
- Nov 2L 71-73vs Creighton
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 70.0 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Kansas | S Dakota St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.6 70th | 106.2 35th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.7 42nd | 92.4 138th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.7% 114th | 48.1% 48th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.7% 34th | 48.4% 325th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 181st | 22.5% 97th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 234th | 31.9% 230th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 28th | 0.18 334th |
The widest gap: Kansas's offense (70th) against S Dakota St's defense (138th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Kansas 34, S Dakota St 32
- First-half margin
- Kansas by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Kansas 37, S Dakota St 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Kansas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
- S Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Kansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany HarshawG | 31 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Libby FandelG | 30 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jaliya DavisF | 28 | 19.8 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 20+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Regan WilliamsF | 27 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| S'Mya NicholsG | 24 | 13.1 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Anna GoodenG | 22 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Brooklynn RennF | 15 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Mollie ErnstesG | 14 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
S Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie VaseckaG | 30 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Mahli AbdouchG | 27 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Brooklyn MeyerF | 27 | 15.1 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Hadley ThulG | 26 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Audrey ShindelarG | 25 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Emilee FoxG | 24 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Claire SheppardF | 13 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Maggie HartwigF | 12 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…