Who will win Georgia vs Ohio?
The model gives Georgia a 87% chance to beat Ohio, with a projected score of Georgia 73, Ohio 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Georgia | |||||
| HowardF · 20 min | 12.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 15+ 34% | |
| BrownG · 24 min | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| SmithG · 26 min | 10.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 10+ 53% | |
| AdebanjoF · 19 min | 8.9 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 40% | |
 Ohio | |||||
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 40% | |
| TabelingG · 26 min | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 5+ 67% | |
| BaxterG · 21 min | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 5+ 46% | |
| MoultrieG · 25 min | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dakota Howard: Georgia 81%Ohio 19%
The white mark is the call with her: Georgia 87%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Georgia without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | ||||
| Dakota Howard | 3.5 | 81% | −6 | 71–60 |
| Nya Smith | 2.4 | 83% | −4 | 72–59 |
| Jordan Thomas | 2.3 | 83% | −4 | 72–59 |
| Tyreona Sibley | 2.3 | 83% | −4 | 72–59 |
| Ohio | ||||
| Bailey Tabeling | 1.9 | 90% | +3 | 74–57 |
| Antonicia Moultrie | 1.0 | 89% | +2 | 73–57 |
| ReRe Jennings | 0.8 | 89% | +2 | 73–57 |
| Asiah Baxter | 0.8 | 89% | +2 | 73–57 |
Change is in Georgia's win chance, in points. Scores read Georgia, then Ohio. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Georgia 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 84-42vs Kennesaw St
- Nov 8W 74-48vs Nicholls
- Nov 5W 75-40vs WinthropCovered −34.5 · Under 133.5
- Nov 2W 92-53vs West Georgia
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 81.2 and allowing 45.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Georgia | Ohio | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.1 58th | 86.6 238th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 81.8 32nd | 90.3 115th |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 156th | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.5% 119th | 43.3% 306th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.9% 145th | 44.1% 94th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.6% 41st | 24.8% 275th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.0% 168th | 32.8% 180th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 87th | 0.22 136th |
The widest gap: Georgia's defense (32nd) against Ohio's offense (238th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Georgia 35, Ohio 27
- First-half margin
- Georgia by 8.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.9
- Projected second half
- Georgia 37, Ohio 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Georgia, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 40.8 scored, 21.8 allowed
- Ohio, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 25.0 scored, 18.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Georgia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nya SmithG | 26 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Aubrey BeckhamG | 25 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Milan BrownG | 24 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Jailyn BanksG | 21 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 50% to play · 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 39% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Dakota HowardF | 20 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Tyreona SibleyG | 20 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Jordana CodioG | 20 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Blessing AdebanjoF | 19 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jailyn Banks (22 min a game).
Ohio
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monica WilliamsG | 26 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Bailey TabelingG | 26 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Antonicia MoultrieG | 25 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Asiah BaxterG | 21 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Kamie EllisG | 20 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Irene Asensio ManosaG | 18 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Danni ScullyF | 17 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Gigi BowerG | 16 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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