Who will win Ohio vs Howard?
The model gives Howard a 68% chance to beat Ohio, with a projected score of Howard 70, Ohio 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Howard | |||||
| StewartG · 30 min | 15.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| HeniganG · 29 min | 11.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| Bynum-JohnsonG · 29 min | 7.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 5+ 67% | |
| JonesF · 20 min | 6.4 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 60% | |
 Ohio | |||||
| WilliamsG · 27 min | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| TabelingG · 27 min | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 10+ 33% | |
| BaxterG · 21 min | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 51% | |
| MoultrieG · 25 min | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sa'lah Hemingway: Ohio 37%Howard 63%
The white mark is the call with her: Howard 68%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Howard without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard | ||||
| Sa'lah Hemingway | 1.8 | 63% | −5 | 65–70 |
| Zoe Stewart | 1.1 | 65% | −3 | 65–70 |
| Ariella Henigan | 1.0 | 65% | −3 | 65–70 |
| Kearra Jones | 1.0 | 65% | −3 | 65–70 |
| Ohio | ||||
| Bailey Tabeling | 1.9 | 73% | +5 | 64–71 |
| Antonicia Moultrie | 1.0 | 70% | +2 | 64–71 |
| ReRe Jennings | 0.8 | 70% | +2 | 64–71 |
| Asiah Baxter | 0.8 | 70% | +2 | 64–71 |
Change is in Howard's win chance, in points. Scores read Ohio, then Howard. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ohio | Howard | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.6 238th | 92.9 139th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.3 115th | 94.8 187th |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 73.0 96th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.3% 306th | 45.0% 205th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 94th | 44.4% 121st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.8% 275th | 21.6% 36th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 180th | 34.8% 86th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 136th | 0.25 21st |
The widest gap: Howard's defense (187th) against Ohio's offense (238th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Ohio 30, Howard 34
- First-half margin
- Howard by 3.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.0
- Projected second half
- Ohio 34, Howard 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Ohio, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 25.0 scored, 18.5 allowed
- Howard, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 31.8 scored, 37.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Ohio
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monica WilliamsG | 27 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Bailey TabelingG | 27 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Antonicia MoultrieG | 25 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Asiah BaxterG | 21 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kamie EllisG | 21 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Irene Asensio ManosaG | 18 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Danni ScullyF | 17 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Gigi BowerG | 16 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
Howard
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe StewartG | 30 | 15.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Ariella HeniganG | 29 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Destiny Bynum-JohnsonG | 29 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kearra JonesF | 20 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Rayne DurantF | 19 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 46% | |||||
| April EdwardsG | 19 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jada KendrickF | 15 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Indiah HutchinsonG | 12 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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