Who won Howard vs Missouri?
Final: Missouri 91, Howard 88. Before tip-off the model gave Missouri a 84% chance to win, with a projected margin of 13.5 points for Missouri. McKenzie Mathurin scored 29 for Missouri; April Edwards had 15 for Howard.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without McKenzie Mathurin: Howard 25%Missouri 75%
The white mark is the call with her: Missouri 84%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Missouri without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Missouri | ||||
| McKenzie Mathurin | 4.3 | 75% | −9 | 78–88 |
| Grace Slaughter | 3.9 | 76% | −8 | 78–88 |
| Nevaeh Caffey | 2.9 | 78% | −6 | 78–88 |
| Tanyuel Welch | 2.4 | 79% | −5 | 78–89 |
 Howard | ||||
| Sa'lah Hemingway | 1.8 | 87% | +3 | 75–91 |
| Zoe Stewart | 1.1 | 85% | +1 | 76–90 |
| Ariella Henigan | 1.0 | 85% | +1 | 76–90 |
| Kearra Jones | 1.0 | 85% | +1 | 76–90 |
Change is in Missouri's win chance, in points. Scores read Howard, then Missouri. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Howard
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Missouri
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Howard | Missouri | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.9 139th | 103.0 51st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.8 187th | 88.0 75th |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 96th | 74.4 27th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.0% 205th | 46.8% 103rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.4% 121st | 44.1% 93rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.6% 36th | 21.6% 38th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 86th | 35.3% 65th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 21st | 0.19 297th |
The widest gap: Missouri's offense (51st) against Howard's defense (187th), of 363 teams.
First half
Howard led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 12.8 points and the total by 7.7.
- At halftime
- Howard 38, Missouri 33
- Projected halftime score
- Howard 35, Missouri 43
- First-half margin
- Missouri by 7.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 78.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Howard
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sa'lah HemingwayF | 33 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Destiny Bynum-JohnsonG | 33 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| April EdwardsG | 31 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Zoe StewartG | 28 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Rayne DurantF | 25 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiah HutchinsonG | 22 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Saniya JonesF | 20 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Ariella HeniganG | 16 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kearra JonesF | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKenzie MathurinG | 41 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Khloe FordF | 34 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| Nevaeh CaffeyG | 34 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tanyuel WelchG | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Grace SlaughterG | 28 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Natalya HodgeG | 24 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Abbey SchreackeG | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ellie MullerF | 13 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Averi KroenkeG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |