Lindenwood at Missouri
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Mizzou Arena. Lindenwood our rank 236 · 1-3; Missouri our rank 61 · 4-0.
Who will win Lindenwood vs Missouri?
The model gives Missouri a 98% chance to beat Lindenwood, with a projected score of Missouri 77, Lindenwood 52.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | |||||
| SlaughterG · 27 min | 16.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 15+ 57% | |
| MathurinG · 26 min | 12.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| CaffeyG · 25 min | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 10+ 47% | |
| WelchG · 23 min | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| Lindenwood | |||||
| McNeceG · 25 min | 7.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5+ 68% | |
| DykstraG · 29 min | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 5+ 60% | |
| RuckerG · 26 min | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 44% | |
| MantzioriG · 22 min | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without McKenzie Mathurin: Lindenwood 4%Missouri 96%
The white mark is the call with her: Missouri 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Missouri without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | ||||
| McKenzie Mathurin | 4.3 | 96% | −2 | 54–75 |
| Grace Slaughter | 3.9 | 96% | −2 | 54–75 |
| Nevaeh Caffey | 2.9 | 97% | −1 | 53–76 |
| Tanyuel Welch | 2.4 | 97% | −1 | 53–76 |
Change is in Missouri's win chance, in points. Scores read Lindenwood, then Missouri. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lindenwood 1-3LLWL
- Nov 10L 35-71at Louisville
- Nov 7W 62-49vs Evansville
- Nov 4L 52-66at Denver
- Nov 2L 46-63at Colorado St
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 48.8 and allowing 62.2
Missouri 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 103-59vs UT Martin
- Nov 9W 106-59vs Tennessee Tech
- Nov 6W 73-50at Little Rock
- Nov 2W 91-88vs Howard
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 93.2 and allowing 64.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lindenwood | Missouri | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.9 306th | 103.0 51st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.5 140th | 88.0 75th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 345th | 74.4 27th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.5% 326th | 46.8% 103rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.1% 154th | 44.1% 93rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 190th | 21.6% 38th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 289th | 35.3% 65th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 307th | 0.19 297th |
The widest gap: Missouri's defense (75th) against Lindenwood's offense (306th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lindenwood 23, Missouri 38
- First-half margin
- Missouri by 14.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.2
- Projected second half
- Lindenwood 28, Missouri 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lindenwood, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 24.2 scored, 33.8 allowed
- Missouri, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.2 scored, 30.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lindenwood
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadence DykstraG | 29 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Brenna RuckerG | 26 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Violet McNeceG | 25 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Konstantina MantzioriG | 22 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Saniah TylerG | 20 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Anna McCarnF | 19 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| Jarius PowersC | 17 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| Jazlyn PowellF | 16 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace SlaughterG | 27 | 16.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| McKenzie MathurinG | 26 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Nevaeh CaffeyG | 25 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Tanyuel WelchG | 23 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Khloe FordF | 22 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Natalya HodgeG | 21 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Ellie MullerF | 16 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Abbey SchreackeG | 12 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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