Cleveland St 62, Penn State 61
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Rec Hall. Cleveland St our rank 158 · 1-2; Penn State our rank 169 · 0-3.
Who won Cleveland St vs Penn State?
Final: Cleveland State 62, Penn State 61. Before tip-off the model gave Cleveland State a 18% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 12.7 points for Penn State. Macie Taylor scored 20 for Cleveland St; Ava Black had 17 for Penn State.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Petra Božan: Cleveland St 21%Penn State 79%
The white mark is the call with her: Penn State 82%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Penn State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | ||||
| Petra Božan | 1.7 | 79% | −3 | 77–88 |
| Ava Black | 1.6 | 79% | −3 | 77–88 |
| Devyn Quigley | 1.1 | 80% | −2 | 77–88 |
| Cristen Carter | 0.9 | 80% | −2 | 76–88 |
| Cleveland St | ||||
| Macie Taylor | 2.2 | 86% | +4 | 75–90 |
| Sarah Hurley | 0.9 | 84% | +2 | 76–89 |
| Alexa Hocevar | 0.9 | 84% | +2 | 76–89 |
| Paula Pique | 0.9 | 84% | +2 | 76–89 |
Change is in Penn State's win chance, in points. Scores read Cleveland St, then Penn State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Cleveland St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Penn State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cleveland St | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.0 151st | 92.7 142nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.7 164th | 95.2 202nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 73.4 74th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.9% 144th | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.8% 77th | 47.4% 294th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.9% 17th | 22.9% 127th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 313th | 33.2% 157th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 20th | 0.20 271st |
The widest gap: Cleveland St's offense (151st) against Penn State's defense (202nd), of 363 teams.
First half
Cleveland St led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 9.3 points and the total by 26.1.
- At halftime
- Cleveland St 27, Penn State 25
- Projected halftime score
- Cleveland St 35, Penn State 43
- First-half margin
- Penn State by 7.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 78.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Cleveland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah HurleyG | 39 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Paula PiqueG | 35 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Chloe OliverG | 35 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Macie TaylorG | 32 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Alexa HocevarG | 30 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Annika CorcoranG | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Silvia GonzalezF | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Penn State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava BlackG | 39 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Petra BožanF | 32 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Savannah WhiteF | 27 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Enjulina GonzalezG | 26 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Devyn QuigleyG | 23 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cristen CarterF | 21 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Skylar DurleyG | 21 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Kamrah BanksG | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |