Holy Cross at Richmond
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Robins Center. Holy Cross our rank 196 · 3-1; Richmond our rank 87 · 2-2.
Who will win Holy Cross vs Richmond?
The model gives Richmond a 91% chance to beat Holy Cross, with a projected score of Richmond 73, Holy Cross 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | |||||
| SweeneyG · 35 min | 14.8 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 15+ 48% | |
| ScottG · 32 min | 13.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 15+ 37% | |
| PersichettiG · 32 min | 10.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| IharaF · 26 min | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| Holy Cross | |||||
| BachmannG · 28 min | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| EddyG · 33 min | 10.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| PhiriG · 31 min | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| McDermottG · 26 min | 6.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ally Sweeney: Holy Cross 16%Richmond 84%
The white mark is the call with her: Richmond 91%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Richmond without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | ||||
| Ally Sweeney | 3.9 | 84% | −7 | 59–71 |
| Ava Persichetti | 2.7 | 86% | −5 | 58–72 |
| Aneisha Scott | 2.6 | 87% | −4 | 58–72 |
| Rayne Wright | 1.4 | 88% | −3 | 58–72 |
| Holy Cross | ||||
| Janie Bachmann | 1.4 | 92% | +1 | 56–74 |
| Kendall Eddy | 1.0 | 92% | +1 | 56–73 |
| Emma Lizotte | 0.7 | 92% | +1 | 57–73 |
Change is in Richmond's win chance, in points. Scores read Holy Cross, then Richmond. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Holy Cross 3-1WWLW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 58.0 and allowing 56.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Holy Cross | Richmond | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.0 252nd | 102.6 54th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.5 142nd | 93.8 169th |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 307th | 69.8 345th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.8% 220th | 48.5% 31st |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.8% 36th | 47.5% 298th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.2% 27th | 22.9% 123rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.4% 360th | 30.4% 305th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 362nd | 0.20 268th |
The widest gap: Richmond's offense (54th) against Holy Cross's defense (142nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Holy Cross 26, Richmond 35
- First-half margin
- Richmond by 9.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.5
- Projected second half
- Holy Cross 31, Richmond 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Holy Cross, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 25.0 scored, 28.5 allowed
- Richmond, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 36.2 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Holy Cross
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah GriffinG | 33 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Kendall EddyG | 33 | 10.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Colleen PhiriG | 31 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Janie BachmannG | 28 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Brianna McDermottG | 26 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Emma LizotteF | 19 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Abigail CasperF | 17 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Richmond
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally SweeneyG | 35 | 14.8 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Ava PersichettiG | 32 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Aneisha ScottG | 32 | 13.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Arisa IharaF | 26 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Josie FontanaF | 26 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rayne WrightG | 14 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Emma SchoenG | 11 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Shaneka CampbellF | 10 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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