CSU Northridge at San Diego
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion. CSU Northridge our rank 294 · 1-1; San Diego our rank 201 · 2-1.
Who will win CSU Northridge vs San Diego?
The model gives San Diego a 79% chance to beat Cal State Northridge, with a projected score of San Diego 72, CSU Northridge 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | |||||
| RayG · 36 min | 20.3 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 20+ 51% | |
| OwensG · 25 min | 11.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| RuseF · 31 min | 10.3 | 10.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 50% | |
| AjayiG · 29 min | 9.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 45% | |
| CSU Northridge | |||||
| WhiteG · 25 min | 10.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 51% | |
| NazárioG · 23 min | 8.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| FilemuG · 24 min | 8.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 38% | |
| DignadiceG · 24 min | 7.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kiera Pemberton: CSU Northridge 26%San Diego 74%
The white mark is the call with her: San Diego 79%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San Diego without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | ||||
| Kiera Pemberton | 1.9 | 74% | −5 | 62–71 |
| Sammie Wagner | 1.1 | 76% | −3 | 62–71 |
| Eva Ruse | 0.7 | 77% | −2 | 62–71 |
Change is in San Diego's win chance, in points. Scores read CSU Northridge, then San Diego. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
CSU Northridge 1-1WL
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 75.5 and allowing 61.0
San Diego 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 70-67vs Portland St
- Nov 7L 88-90vs UC San Diego
- Nov 2W 61-56at New Mexico St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 73.0 and allowing 71.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| CSU Northridge | San Diego | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.6 286th | 88.8 199th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.0 278th | 96.1 221st |
| Possessions a game | 73.9 51st | 71.7 211th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.9% 214th | 47.1% 90th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.1% 218th | 46.7% 257th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 95th | 24.3% 255th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.6% 294th | 34.0% 122nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 103rd | 0.22 108th |
The widest gap: San Diego's offense (199th) against CSU Northridge's defense (278th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- CSU Northridge 29, San Diego 35
- First-half margin
- San Diego by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.1
- Projected second half
- CSU Northridge 33, San Diego 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- CSU Northridge, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 38.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
- San Diego, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
CSU Northridge
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saray WhiteG | 25 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Sophia DignadiceG | 24 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kira-May FilemuG | 24 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Rita NazárioG | 23 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Carlotta CocuzzaG | 21 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Amya MoodyG | 19 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Princess Okafor NwezeF | 17 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
| Nadia BernardF | 15 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylie RayG | 36 | 20.3 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 |
| 20+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Eva RuseF | 31 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 11+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Jessica AjayiG | 29 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Sammie WagnerG | 28 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Olivia OwensG | 25 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 45% to play · 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Kiera PembertonF | 25 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Lilly AmorG | 22 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ ast 26% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Olivia Owens (28 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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