San Diego St at CSU Northridge
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Premier America Credit Union Arena. San Diego St our rank 72 · 3-1; CSU Northridge our rank 294 · 1-1.
Who will win San Diego St vs CSU Northridge?
The model gives San Diego State a 93% chance to beat Cal State Northridge, with a projected score of San Diego St 76, CSU Northridge 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | |||||
| DeChentG · 26 min | 13.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 15+ 39% | |
| MartinezG · 31 min | 12.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| BarnhardF · 28 min | 9.3 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 43% | |
| MadjoF · 20 min | 9.3 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| CSU Northridge | |||||
| WhiteG · 25 min | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| NazárioG · 23 min | 8.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 35% | |
| FilemuG · 24 min | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 33% | |
| DignadiceG · 24 min | 6.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bailey Barnhard: San Diego St 90%CSU Northridge 10%
The white mark is the call with her: San Diego St 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San Diego St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | ||||
| Bailey Barnhard | 2.9 | 90% | −3 | 74–58 |
| Natalia Martinez | 2.5 | 90% | −3 | 74–58 |
| Eva DeChent | 2.3 | 90% | −3 | 75–58 |
| Kennedy Lee | 2.0 | 91% | −2 | 75–57 |
Change is in San Diego St's win chance, in points. Scores read San Diego St, then CSU Northridge. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
San Diego St 3-1WWWL
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 67.5 and allowing 57.0
CSU Northridge 1-1WL
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 75.5 and allowing 61.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| San Diego St | CSU Northridge | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.8 84th | 82.6 286th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.2 67th | 99.0 278th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 296th | 73.9 51st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.1% 137th | 44.9% 214th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.8% 76th | 46.1% 218th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 193rd | 22.5% 95th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.1% 357th | 30.6% 294th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 104th | 0.22 103rd |
The widest gap: San Diego St's defense (67th) against CSU Northridge's offense (286th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- San Diego St 37, CSU Northridge 26
- First-half margin
- San Diego St by 11.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.7
- Projected second half
- San Diego St 39, CSU Northridge 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- San Diego St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.2 scored, 23.0 allowed
- CSU Northridge, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 38.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
San Diego St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalia MartinezG | 31 | 12.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Bailey BarnhardF | 28 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Eva DeChentG | 26 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Nayli PadillaG | 24 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Dionne MadjoF | 20 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Alayna KrausG | 20 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Kennedy LeeF | 20 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Alyssa JacksonG | 16 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
CSU Northridge
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saray WhiteG | 25 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Sophia DignadiceG | 24 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kira-May FilemuG | 24 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Rita NazárioG | 23 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Carlotta CocuzzaG | 21 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Amya MoodyG | 19 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Princess Okafor NwezeF | 18 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Nadia BernardF | 16 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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