Winthrop at San Diego St
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena. Winthrop our rank 327 · 2-1; San Diego St our rank 72 · 3-1.
Who will win Winthrop vs San Diego St?
The model gives San Diego State a 99% chance to beat Winthrop, with a projected score of San Diego St 79, Winthrop 48.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | |||||
| DeChentG · 25 min | 13.5 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 15+ 40% | |
| MartinezG · 29 min | 12.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| MadjoF · 20 min | 9.6 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 45% | |
| BarnhardF · 26 min | 9.3 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 43% | |
| Winthrop | |||||
| RuffG · 23 min | 8.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 10+ 34% | |
| Bush-LewisG · 24 min | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5+ 59% | |
| GuileraF · 18 min | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 5+ 41% | |
| RobinsonG · 16 min | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bailey Barnhard: Winthrop 2%San Diego St 98%
The white mark is the call with her: San Diego St 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San Diego St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | ||||
| Bailey Barnhard | 2.9 | 98% | −1 | 50–78 |
| Natalia Martinez | 2.5 | 99% | 0 | 49–78 |
| Eva DeChent | 2.3 | 99% | 0 | 49–78 |
| Kennedy Lee | 2.0 | 99% | 0 | 49–78 |
Change is in San Diego St's win chance, in points. Scores read Winthrop, then San Diego St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Winthrop 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 84-57vs Johnson C. Smith
- Nov 5L 40-75at GeorgiaDidn't cover +34.5 · Under 133.5
- Nov 2W 57-46vs Newberry
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 60.3 and allowing 59.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
San Diego St 3-1WWWL
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 67.5 and allowing 57.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Winthrop | San Diego St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 77.8 337th | 98.8 84th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.6 264th | 87.2 67th |
| Possessions a game | 73.1 92nd | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 162nd | 46.1% 137th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.0% 151st | 43.8% 76th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 27.1% 345th | 23.6% 193rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.2% 209th | 28.1% 357th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 163rd | 0.22 104th |
The widest gap: San Diego St's defense (67th) against Winthrop's offense (337th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Winthrop 21, San Diego St 39
- First-half margin
- San Diego St by 17.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.3
- Projected second half
- Winthrop 27, San Diego St 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Winthrop, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 29.7 allowed
- San Diego St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.2 scored, 23.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Winthrop
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Bush-LewisG | 24 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Laura SilvaG | 23 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Madison RuffG | 23 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Ryiah WilsonG | 19 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kyra TaylorF | 19 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Marta GuileraF | 18 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Maya RobinsonG | 16 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Mya HamiltonG | 15 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 22% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
San Diego St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalia MartinezG | 29 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Bailey BarnhardF | 26 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Eva DeChentG | 25 | 13.5 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Nayli PadillaG | 23 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Dionne MadjoF | 20 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Kennedy LeeF | 20 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Alayna KrausG | 20 | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Alyssa JacksonG | 16 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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