Fullerton 51, San Diego St 77
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena. Fullerton our rank 306 · 2-2; San Diego St our rank 72 · 3-1.
Who won Fullerton vs San Diego St?
Final: San Diego State 77, Cal State Fullerton 51. Before tip-off the model gave San Diego State a 95% chance to win, with a projected margin of 22.7 points for San Diego State. Mayenabasi Akpan scored 13 for San Diego St; Dylan Swindle had 26 for Fullerton.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Bailey Barnhard: Fullerton 7%San Diego St 93%
The white mark is the call with her: San Diego St 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San Diego St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | ||||
| Bailey Barnhard | 2.9 | 93% | −2 | 71–91 |
| Natalia Martinez | 2.5 | 93% | −2 | 71–91 |
| Eva DeChent | 2.3 | 93% | −2 | 71–91 |
| Kennedy Lee | 2.0 | 93% | −2 | 71–92 |
| Fullerton | ||||
| Talia Maxwell | 0.5 | 95% | 0 | 69–93 |
Change is in San Diego St's win chance, in points. Scores read Fullerton, then San Diego St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Fullerton
No games yet this season: this is its first.
San Diego St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fullerton | San Diego St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 85.1 261st | 98.8 84th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.8 336th | 87.2 67th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.3% 303rd | 46.1% 137th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.2% 280th | 43.8% 76th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 58th | 23.6% 193rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 320th | 28.1% 357th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 145th | 0.22 104th |
The widest gap: San Diego St's offense (84th) against Fullerton's defense (336th), of 363 teams.
First half
San Diego St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 7.9 points and the total by 13.9.
- At halftime
- Fullerton 21, San Diego St 42
- Projected halftime score
- Fullerton 32, San Diego St 45
- First-half margin
- San Diego St by 13.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Fullerton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan SwindleG | 36 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Jana FalsdottirG | 32 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Juliana AragonG | 32 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Ashari CassellG | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Talia MaxwellF | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mimi MoonG | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bernadette CarranzaG | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Shadel FfrenchF | 11 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
San Diego St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa JacksonG | 21 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Alayna KrausG | 21 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Natalia MartinezG | 20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Izzy NavarroG | 20 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| Eva DeChentG | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Nayli PadillaG | 19 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Bailey BarnhardF | 17 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Dionne MadjoF | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kennedy LeeF | 15 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 |