Who will win Pacific vs Fullerton?
The model gives Pacific a 77% chance to beat Cal State Fullerton, with a projected score of Pacific 73, Fullerton 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pacific | |||||
| MindermannG · 28 min | 12.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| RiveraG · 24 min | 11.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| NworieC · 23 min | 9.2 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| DyerG · 20 min | 7.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 5+ 66% | |
 Fullerton | |||||
| SwindleG · 31 min | 13.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 15+ 38% | |
| FalsdottirG · 30 min | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 38% | |
| AragonG · 27 min | 8.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 10+ 37% | |
| SutisnaG · 19 min | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Victoria Rivera: Pacific 72%Fullerton 28%
The white mark is the call with her: Pacific 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Pacific without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific | ||||
| Victoria Rivera | 1.8 | 72% | −5 | 72–65 |
| JoJo Nworie | 1.8 | 72% | −5 | 72–65 |
| Yana Karamfilova | 1.0 | 74% | −3 | 73–64 |
| Sophia Mindermann | 0.8 | 75% | −2 | 73–64 |
| Fullerton | ||||
| Talia Maxwell | 0.5 | 78% | +1 | 73–63 |
Change is in Pacific's win chance, in points. Scores read Pacific, then Fullerton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Pacific 1-1WL
- Nov 5L 54-75at Washington
- Nov 2W 105-42vs Simpson (CA)
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 79.5 and allowing 58.5
Fullerton 2-2LWWL
- Nov 12L 52-86at UC Davis
- Nov 7W 73-43vs Westcliff
- Nov 4W 90-59vs Hope International
- Nov 2L 51-77at San Diego St
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 66.5 and allowing 66.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pacific | Fullerton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.4 157th | 85.1 261st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.8 147th | 102.8 336th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 73.2 84th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.3% 187th | 43.3% 303rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.6% 129th | 47.2% 280th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 248th | 22.0% 58th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 194th | 29.9% 320th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 199th | 0.22 145th |
The widest gap: Pacific's offense (157th) against Fullerton's defense (336th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pacific 35, Fullerton 30
- First-half margin
- Pacific by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.9
- Projected second half
- Pacific 38, Fullerton 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pacific, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 28.5 allowed
- Fullerton, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 36.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pacific
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia MindermannG | 28 | 12.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Stella SzaboG | 26 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Victoria RiveraG | 24 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| JoJo NworieC | 23 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Yana KaramfilovaF | 21 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jordyn DyerG | 20 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| LaMiracle LebonF | 19 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Liv YergensenG | 16 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
Fullerton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan SwindleG | 31 | 13.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jana FalsdottirG | 30 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Juliana AragonG | 27 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Mimi MoonG | 22 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Ashari CassellG | 22 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Maxine SutisnaG | 19 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Talia MaxwellF | 19 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Bernadette CarranzaG | 14 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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