Who will win Weber St vs Fullerton?
The model gives Weber State a 59% chance to beat Cal State Fullerton, with a projected score of Weber St 69, Fullerton 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Weber St | |||||
| HintzG · 26 min | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 10+ 53% | |
| RobbinsG · 26 min | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| LauroF · 26 min | 9.2 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 10+ 42% | |
| WhiteG · 30 min | 8.2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 10+ 35% | |
 Fullerton | |||||
| SwindleG · 31 min | 13.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 15+ 42% | |
| FalsdottirG · 31 min | 9.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 10+ 42% | |
| AragonG · 28 min | 8.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 10+ 40% | |
| SutisnaG · 19 min | 7.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nicole Willardson: Weber St 57%Fullerton 43%
The white mark is the call with her: Weber St 59%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Weber St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weber St | ||||
| Nicole Willardson | 0.6 | 57% | −2 | 69–67 |
| Fullerton | ||||
| Talia Maxwell | 0.5 | 61% | +2 | 70–66 |
Change is in Weber St's win chance, in points. Scores read Weber St, then Fullerton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Weber St 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 75.0 and allowing 48.5
Fullerton 2-2LWWL
- Nov 12L 52-86at UC Davis
- Nov 7W 73-43vs Westcliff
- Nov 4W 90-59vs Hope International
- Nov 2L 51-77at San Diego St
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 66.5 and allowing 66.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Weber St | Fullerton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.7 236th | 85.1 261st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.9 216th | 102.8 336th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 73.2 84th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 175th | 43.3% 303rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.9% 80th | 47.2% 280th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.1% 231st | 22.0% 58th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.9% 287th | 29.9% 320th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 85th | 0.22 145th |
The widest gap: Weber St's offense (236th) against Fullerton's defense (336th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Weber St 33, Fullerton 31
- First-half margin
- Weber St by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.3
- Projected second half
- Weber St 36, Fullerton 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Weber St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 33.5 scored, 25.5 allowed
- Fullerton, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 36.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Weber St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney WhiteG | 30 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Grace HintzG | 26 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Paris LauroF | 26 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Nicole WillardsonF | 26 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Hannah RobbinsG | 26 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Draya WackerG | 23 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Dakota NapG | 22 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Siena GuttadauroG | 21 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
Fullerton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan SwindleG | 31 | 13.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jana FalsdottirG | 31 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Juliana AragonG | 28 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Mimi MoonG | 22 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Ashari CassellG | 22 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Maxine SutisnaG | 19 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Talia MaxwellF | 19 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
| Bernadette CarranzaG | 14 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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