Morehead St 42, Kentucky 85
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Memorial Coliseum (KY). Morehead St our rank 282 · 0-4; Kentucky AP 12, our rank 14 · 4-0.
Who won Morehead St vs Kentucky?
Final: Kentucky 85, Morehead State 42. Before tip-off the model gave Kentucky a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 41.3 points for Kentucky. Clara Strack scored 17 for Kentucky; Kensley Feltner had 16 for Morehead St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Clara Strack: Morehead St 1%Kentucky 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Kentucky >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Kentucky without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | ||||
| Clara Strack | 6.7 | 99% | −1 | 62–97 |
| Me'Arah O'Neal | 5.4 | >99% | 0 | 62–98 |
| Asia Boone | 4.3 | >99% | 0 | 61–98 |
| Diana Collins | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 61–98 |
Change is in Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read Morehead St, then Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Morehead St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Kentucky
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Morehead St | Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.0 295th | 111.0 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.3 242nd | 76.8 10th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.5% 240th | 49.4% 21st |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.6% 69th | 39.7% 3rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.6% 306th | 20.2% 8th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 241st | 35.5% 59th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 157th | 0.17 348th |
The widest gap: Kentucky's defense (10th) against Morehead St's offense (295th), of 363 teams.
First half
Kentucky led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.2 points and the total by 18.5.
- At halftime
- Morehead St 15, Kentucky 42
- Projected halftime score
- Morehead St 26, Kentucky 50
- First-half margin
- Kentucky by 23.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Morehead St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi SmithG | 36 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamora MorganG | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Kensley FeltnerG | 29 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Lanae RileyF | 28 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Allie SykesG | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alonna PooleG | 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Breayah JeffersonG | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Courtney SmithG | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Millie PearsonF | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajsa SivkaG | 27 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| Asia BooneG | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Me'Arah O'NealF | 23 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Savvy SwordsF | 23 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Clara StrackC | 22 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Diana CollinsG | 22 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Maddyn GreenwayG | 22 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Emily McDonaldG | 18 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Ayanna PattersonF | 14 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |