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IU Indy at Morehead St

Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Ellis T. Johnson Arena. IU Indy our rank 221 · 1-2; Morehead St our rank 282 · 0-4.

Who will win IU Indy vs Morehead St?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Morehead State a 52% chance to beat IU Indianapolis, with a projected score of Morehead St 68, IU Indy 67.

To winMorehead St 52%IU Indy 48%
Projected score67–68IU Indy, then Morehead St
Margin0.6Morehead St · no line posted
Total134.5no line posted
First half32–32Morehead St ahead 50%
IU Indy by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Morehead St by 30Model: Morehead St by 0.6IU Indy by 30by 10by 10Morehead St by 30Model: Morehead St by 0.6

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Morehead St
FeltnerG · 34 min16.26.01.715+ 56%
SmithG · 33 min10.65.51.510+ 53%
RileyF · 26 min8.16.21.610+ 34%
MorganG · 31 min7.45.02.15+ 69%
IU Indy
SmithG · 30 min15.55.62.115+ 52%
CraigG · 28 min10.54.71.010+ 52%
SmithG · 28 min10.55.02.210+ 52%
SiplaG · 30 min7.34.81.15+ 68%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    IU Indy 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 10L 74-86at Indiana St
    2. Nov 5W 70-69vs SIUE
    3. Nov 2L 73-81at Purdue
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 72.3 and allowing 78.7

    Morehead St 0-4LLLL

    1. Nov 12L 72-81at Murray St
    2. Nov 9L 50-102at VanderbiltCovered +52.5 · Over 148.5
    3. Nov 5L 58-63vs E Kentucky
    4. Nov 2L 42-85at Kentucky
    Last 4
    0–4, scoring 55.5 and allowing 82.8
    Against the spread, this season
    1–0
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    IU IndyMorehead St
    Points scored per 100 possessions88.9 197th82.0 295th
    Points allowed per 10098.5 262nd97.3 242nd
    Possessions a game73.6 65th72.7 115th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.1% 271st44.5% 240th
    Opponents' shooting47.0% 270th43.6% 69th
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.1% 231st25.6% 306th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses34.3% 110th31.7% 241st
    Free throws per shot0.28 2nd0.22 157th

    The widest gap: IU Indy's offense (197th) against Morehead St's defense (242nd), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    IU Indy 32, Morehead St 32
    First-half margin
    Morehead St by 0.4
    First-half points, both teams
    63.8
    Projected second half
    IU Indy 35, Morehead St 36
    Second-half points, both teams
    70.8
    Tied at the half
    4%
    IU Indy, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 32.3 allowed
    Morehead St, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 22.7 scored, 39.3 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    IU Indy

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Reagan SiplaG307.34.81.11.0
    5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 56%
    Olivia SmithG3015.55.62.11.7
    15+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 46%
    Destini CraigG2810.54.71.00.6
    10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 42%
    Hailey SmithG2810.55.02.20.9
    45% to play · 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53%
    Julia HallG267.04.70.90.6
    5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44%
    E'Zaria AdamsG235.62.01.20.2
    5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 31%
    Olivia FlynnG205.21.80.80.7
    5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46%
    Hailee BrennenF143.72.80.50.5
    5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 40%

    Missed the last game: Hailey Smith (30 min a game).

    Morehead St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Kensley FeltnerG3416.26.01.71.6
    15+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 49%
    Heidi SmithG3310.65.51.50.5
    10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 42%
    Kamora MorganG317.45.02.10.9
    5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 56%
    Lanae RileyF268.16.21.60.6
    10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 45%
    Breayah JeffersonG196.23.11.40.5
    5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 38%
    Samaria TaylorG196.02.40.50.2
    5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 41%
    Allie SykesG173.60.90.20.7
    53% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 24% · 1+ threes 46%
    Millie PearsonF131.82.50.80.1
    3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 21%

    Missed the last game: Allie Sykes (20 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 77-74Vanderbilt vs Iowa, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 73-74Florida at Florida St, women's: game page
    3. 2 PMprojected 69-69Michigan St at Harvard, women's: game page
    4. 2 PMprojected 74-74Villanova at Fairfield, women's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 68-67Montana St at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 5:30 PMprojected 77-70UConn at Louisville, women's: game page
    IU Indy next: vs Evansville, Wed, Nov 18 · 83%Morehead St next: at W Carolina, Sun, Nov 22 · 33%IU Indy: schedule and oddsMorehead St: schedule and odds