Morehead St at W Carolina
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Ramsey Center. Morehead St our rank 282 · 0-4; W Carolina our rank 255 · 4-0.
Who will win Morehead St vs W Carolina?
The model gives Western Carolina a 67% chance to beat Morehead State, with a projected score of W Carolina 68, Morehead St 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Carolina | |||||
| HollifieldG · 29 min | 13.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 15+ 41% | |
| HollifieldG · 26 min | 11.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| MountC · 23 min | 9.6 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| RichardsonG · 27 min | 8.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| Morehead St | |||||
| FeltnerG · 33 min | 15.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 15+ 49% | |
| SmithG · 32 min | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 47% | |
| RileyF · 26 min | 7.5 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 5+ 69% | |
| MorganG · 31 min | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Camri Hobbs: Morehead St 34%W Carolina 66%
The white mark is the call with her: W Carolina 67%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | W Carolina without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Carolina | ||||
| Camri Hobbs | 0.5 | 66% | −1 | 63–68 |
Change is in W Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Morehead St, then W Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Morehead St 0-4LLLL
- Nov 12L 72-81at Murray St
- Nov 9L 50-102at VanderbiltCovered +52.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 5L 58-63vs E Kentucky
- Nov 2L 42-85at Kentucky
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 55.5 and allowing 82.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
W Carolina 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 73-63at UNC Asheville
- Nov 8W 89-47vs Johnson
- Nov 5W 72-58vs West Florida
- Nov 2W 96-31vs Carolina University
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 82.5 and allowing 49.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Morehead St | W Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.0 295th | 87.5 227th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.3 242nd | 100.4 304th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.5% 240th | 46.1% 136th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.6% 69th | 45.5% 177th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.6% 306th | 22.9% 129th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 241st | 37.3% 26th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 157th | 0.24 47th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Morehead St 29, W Carolina 33
- First-half margin
- W Carolina by 3.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.9
- Projected second half
- Morehead St 33, W Carolina 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Morehead St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 22.7 scored, 39.3 allowed
- W Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 48.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Morehead St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensley FeltnerG | 33 | 15.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Heidi SmithG | 32 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Kamora MorganG | 31 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Lanae RileyF | 26 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Breayah JeffersonG | 19 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Samaria TaylorG | 19 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 61% | |||||
| Allie SykesG | 17 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 22% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Millie PearsonF | 14 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
Missed the last game: Allie Sykes (20 min a game).
W Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally HollifieldG | 29 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 3+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Ellie RichardsonG | 27 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kate HollifieldG | 26 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kayla MountC | 23 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Finley Van BreeG | 20 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Hannah MossG | 20 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| My'Asia YoungG | 20 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Camri HobbsG | 16 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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