W Carolina at Cincinnati
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Fifth Third Arena. W Carolina our rank 255 · 4-0; Cincinnati our rank 96 · 2-1.
Who will win W Carolina vs Cincinnati?
The model gives Cincinnati a 95% chance to beat Western Carolina, with a projected score of Cincinnati 77, W Carolina 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | |||||
| DeVillaseeG · 28 min | 15.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 15+ 51% | |
| JahG · 25 min | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| BullardC · 18 min | 8.0 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 10+ 34% | |
| JonesG · 25 min | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 5+ 66% | |
| W Carolina | |||||
| HollifieldG · 27 min | 11.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| HollifieldG · 25 min | 9.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| MountC · 22 min | 8.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 34% | |
| RichardsonG · 26 min | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Caliyah DeVillasee: W Carolina 8%Cincinnati 92%
The white mark is the call with her: Cincinnati 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Cincinnati without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | ||||
| Caliyah DeVillasee | 3.0 | 92% | −3 | 58–76 |
| Naomi Benson | 1.5 | 94% | −1 | 58–77 |
| Jade Jones | 1.4 | 94% | −1 | 58–77 |
| Sahnya Jah | 1.2 | 94% | −1 | 57–77 |
| W Carolina | ||||
| Camri Hobbs | 0.5 | 95% | 0 | 57–78 |
Change is in Cincinnati's win chance, in points. Scores read W Carolina, then Cincinnati. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
W Carolina 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 73-63at UNC Asheville
- Nov 8W 89-47vs Johnson
- Nov 5W 72-58vs West Florida
- Nov 2W 96-31vs Carolina University
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 82.5 and allowing 49.8
Cincinnati 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 56-67vs Saint Joseph's
- Nov 7W 76-53vs Penn State
- Nov 4W 66-58vs East Texas A&M
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 66.0 and allowing 59.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Carolina | Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.5 227th | 97.2 98th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.4 304th | 89.6 103rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.1% 136th | 43.3% 302nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.5% 177th | 45.3% 162nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 129th | 21.9% 56th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.3% 26th | 32.1% 216th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 47th | 0.20 282nd |
The widest gap: Cincinnati's offense (98th) against W Carolina's defense (304th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- W Carolina 26, Cincinnati 38
- First-half margin
- Cincinnati by 11.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.7
- Projected second half
- W Carolina 31, Cincinnati 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- W Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 48.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
- Cincinnati, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
W Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally HollifieldG | 27 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ellie RichardsonG | 26 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kate HollifieldG | 25 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Kayla MountC | 22 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Finley Van BreeG | 20 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Hannah MossG | 20 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| My'Asia YoungG | 19 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Justice ZimmermanF | 17 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caliyah DeVillaseeG | 28 | 15.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Jade JonesG | 25 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Sahnya JahG | 25 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Reagan JacksonG | 18 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ ast 40% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Amber BullardC | 18 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 55% | |||||
| Naomi BensonF | 18 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Joya CrawfordG | 17 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Dee AlexanderF | 15 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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