SC Upstate 58, Wake Forest 65
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum. SC Upstate our rank 298 · 3-1; Wake Forest our rank 112 · 4-0.
Who won SC Upstate vs Wake Forest?
Final: Wake Forest 65, South Carolina Upstate 58. Before tip-off the model gave Wake Forest a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 27.5 points for Wake Forest. Oshauna Holland scored 19 for Wake Forest; Keira Hudson had 14 for SC Upstate.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Mary Carter: SC Upstate 3%Wake Forest 97%
The white mark is the call with her: Wake Forest 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Wake Forest without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | ||||
| Mary Carter | 2.2 | 97% | −1 | 63–88 |
| Breauna Ware | 1.6 | 97% | −1 | 62–88 |
| Aurora Sorbye | 1.3 | 97% | −1 | 62–88 |
| Opal Bird | 1.1 | 97% | −1 | 62–88 |
| SC Upstate | ||||
| Grace Booth | 0.7 | 98% | 0 | 61–89 |
Change is in Wake Forest's win chance, in points. Scores read SC Upstate, then Wake Forest. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
SC Upstate
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Wake Forest
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SC Upstate | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.4 329th | 93.6 133rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.1 198th | 89.4 98th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 296th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 199th | 47.2% 85th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.4% 24th | 43.3% 55th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.2% 289th | 23.5% 185th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.6% 55th | 29.2% 341st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 219th | 0.22 115th |
The widest gap: Wake Forest's defense (98th) against SC Upstate's offense (329th), of 363 teams.
First half
Wake Forest led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 11.9 points and the total by 2.7.
- At halftime
- SC Upstate 35, Wake Forest 39
- Projected halftime score
- SC Upstate 28, Wake Forest 44
- First-half margin
- Wake Forest by 15.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
SC Upstate
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace BoothG | 32 | 12 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| Aubrie KierschtG | 32 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Emma BlairF | 27 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Vera SoderblomF | 21 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Keira HudsonG | 21 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kinley PatersonG | 19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Macy WikeG | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Zoe RichardsonF | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Lexi CastatorG | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Wake Forest
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary CarterG | 36 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Breauna WareG | 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Aurora SorbyeG | 27 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Opal BirdF | 24 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Oshauna HollandG | 24 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Grace GalbavyG | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Helena DanielewiczF | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Madisyn JordanG | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mckenzie SwansonF | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |