SC Upstate at UNC Greensboro
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Bodford Arena. SC Upstate our rank 298 · 3-1; UNC Greensboro our rank 283 · 3-1.
Who will win SC Upstate vs UNC Greensboro?
The model gives UNC Greensboro a 67% chance to beat South Carolina Upstate, with a projected score of UNC Greensboro 59, SC Upstate 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Greensboro | |||||
| TonyG · 31 min | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 57% | |
| SimpsonG · 29 min | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| MinorG · 31 min | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 10+ 37% | |
| Robinson-HolmesG · 29 min | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| SC Upstate | |||||
| BoothG · 29 min | 10.8 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 54% | |
| KierschtG · 21 min | 8.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 10+ 36% | |
| HudsonG · 20 min | 7.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 32% | |
| BlairF · 22 min | 6.5 | 5.8 | 0.3 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Grace Booth: SC Upstate 31%UNC Greensboro 69%
The white mark is the call with her: UNC Greensboro 67%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UNC Greensboro without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Upstate | ||||
| Grace Booth | 0.7 | 69% | +2 | 53–60 |
Change is in UNC Greensboro's win chance, in points. Scores read SC Upstate, then UNC Greensboro. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SC Upstate 3-1LWWW
- Nov 10W 54-50at SC State
- Nov 7W 68-33vs Southern Wesleyan
- Nov 4W 82-51vs Johnson
- Nov 2L 58-65at Wake Forest
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 65.5 and allowing 49.8
UNC Greensboro 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 59-54at Gardner-Webb
- Nov 8L 44-72at Clemson
- Nov 5W 72-51vs Columbia (SC)
- Nov 2W 58-50vs Presbyterian
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 58.2 and allowing 56.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SC Upstate | UNC Greensboro | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.4 329th | 80.6 311th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.1 198th | 96.0 217th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 296th | 70.0 338th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 199th | 44.5% 241st |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.4% 24th | 41.6% 17th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.2% 289th | 26.9% 339th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.6% 55th | 34.4% 106th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 219th | 0.20 233rd |
The widest gap: SC Upstate's defense (198th) against UNC Greensboro's offense (311th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SC Upstate 25, UNC Greensboro 28
- First-half margin
- UNC Greensboro by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 53.7
- Projected second half
- SC Upstate 29, UNC Greensboro 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 59.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SC Upstate, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.8 scored, 28.2 allowed
- UNC Greensboro, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 29.2 scored, 19.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SC Upstate
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace BoothG | 29 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Lexi CastatorG | 23 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Emma BlairF | 22 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 50% | |||||
| Kinley PatersonG | 22 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Aubrie KierschtG | 21 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| 29% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Vera SoderblomF | 20 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Keira HudsonG | 20 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Haylie LamondeG | 20 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
Missed the last game: Aubrie Kierscht (23 min a game).
UNC Greensboro
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloria TonyG | 31 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Leyla MinorG | 31 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Rose SimpsonG | 29 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Kristina RakotobeF | 29 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Savannah Robinson-HolmesG | 29 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Tiarna Chambers-DesmondF | 21 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Amy JakpaF | 18 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Joelle DavisG | 11 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 16% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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