North Dakota at Detroit Mercy
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Calihan Hall. North Dakota our rank 348 · 1-2; Detroit Mercy our rank 276 · 2-2.
Who will win North Dakota vs Detroit Mercy?
The model gives Detroit Mercy a 86% chance to beat North Dakota, with a projected score of Detroit Mercy 75, North Dakota 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Mercy | |||||
| JacksonG · 29 min | 13.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 37% | |
| LopezG · 28 min | 13.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 15+ 37% | |
| UtomiF · 24 min | 11.0 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 55% | |
| AndersonG · 24 min | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 5+ 66% | |
| North Dakota | |||||
| MavesG · 27 min | 9.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 47% | |
| HarrisG · 27 min | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| WellsG · 27 min | 6.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 5+ 58% | |
| PieknyG · 23 min | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Stephanie Utomi: North Dakota 15%Detroit Mercy 85%
The white mark is the call with her: Detroit Mercy 86%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Detroit Mercy without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Mercy | ||||
| Stephanie Utomi | 0.5 | 85% | −1 | 62–75 |
Change is in Detroit Mercy's win chance, in points. Scores read North Dakota, then Detroit Mercy. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
North Dakota 1-2LWL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 67.0 and allowing 75.3
Detroit Mercy 2-2WLWL
- Nov 10L 60-108at Notre Dame
- Nov 7W 67-63at Valparaiso
- Nov 4L 50-84at Illinois
- Nov 2W 94-30vs Michigan Dearborn
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 67.8 and allowing 71.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Dakota | Detroit Mercy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.0 317th | 84.2 270th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.8 358th | 99.1 282nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 129th | 73.6 65th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.8% 219th | 44.0% 277th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.7% 189th | 45.9% 204th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 134th | 22.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.5% 335th | 32.3% 203rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 91st | 0.23 79th |
The widest gap: Detroit Mercy's offense (270th) against North Dakota's defense (358th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- North Dakota 28, Detroit Mercy 36
- First-half margin
- Detroit Mercy by 8.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.0
- Projected second half
- North Dakota 33, Detroit Mercy 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- North Dakota, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 38.0 allowed
- Detroit Mercy, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 34.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
North Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayda MavesG | 27 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Ciona WellsG | 27 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| London HarrisG | 27 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Sydney PieknyG | 23 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Aliyah GreenF | 22 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Lauren HillesheimG | 16 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Kendra HarveyG | 14 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Jayden SonnenbergG | 14 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Detroit Mercy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makayla JacksonG | 29 | 13.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Paula LopezG | 28 | 13.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Stephanie UtomiF | 24 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Maya AndersonG | 24 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Naïma DiawaraF | 19 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Anna LassanF | 16 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Marie OutlayG | 16 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Addisen MastrianoC | 13 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…